Adaptation to expected and unexpected weather fluctuations: Evidence from Bangladeshi smallholder farmers

Whether and how quickly farmers adapt to a changing climate is of paramount importance to understanding the potential impacts of climate change on agriculture. Yet the literature on adaptation has paid less attention to the distinction between ex-ante adjustments to expected weather and ex-post responses to unexpected shocks. Using a three-wave, nationally representative Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, this paper exploits large variation in precipitation and temperature to estimate the weather impacts on Bangladesh agriculture and to identify the associated productive adaptations to expected and unexpected weather changes. It presents evidence that Bangladeshi farmers are resilient to exposure of crops to temperatures below 32°C through various adaptive activities such as reallocation of land and irrigation water between rice and non-rice crops, the adoption of non-rice improved seed varieties, and the adjustment of the input cost composition. But increased exposure to extreme heat above 32°C causes significant declines in agricultural productivity in wet seasons. Although farmers increase irrigation water inputs to aus and aman rice against unexpected extreme heat, the adaptation effect remains limited. The total cash cost associated with cultivation does not respond to weather changes, plausibly due to the presence of financial liquidity constraints. This study’s finding adds to evidence of smallholder farmers’ short- and medium-run productive responses to adverse climate change in the developing world.