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Within-Season Producer Response to Warmer Temperatures: Defensive Investments by Kenyan Farmers
[Sequential decision making in production models]

Author

Listed:
  • Maulik Jagnani
  • Christopher B Barrett
  • Yanyan Liu
  • Liangzhi You

Abstract

We present evidence that farmers adjust agricultural inputs in response to within-season temperature variation, undertaking defensive investments to reduce the adverse agro-ecological impacts of warmer temperatures. Using panel data from Kenyan maize-growing households, we find that higher temperatures early in the growing season increase the use of pesticides, while reducing fertiliser use. Warmer temperatures throughout the season increase weeding effort. These adjustments arise because greater heat increases the incidence of pests, crop diseases and weeds, compelling farmers to divert investment from productivity-enhancing technologies such as fertiliser to adaptive, loss-reducing, defensive inputs such as pesticides and weeding labour.

Suggested Citation

  • Maulik Jagnani & Christopher B Barrett & Yanyan Liu & Liangzhi You, 2021. "Within-Season Producer Response to Warmer Temperatures: Defensive Investments by Kenyan Farmers [Sequential decision making in production models]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 392-419.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:131:y:2021:i:633:p:392-419.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueaa063
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Cao & Zhixiong Fan & Weiqiang Chen & Zhijian Cao & Anyin Jiang, 2024. "Climate Change, Biased Technological Advances and Agricultural TFP: Empirical Evidence from China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Zhang, Zhiyue & Zhang, Wenhao & Wu, Qingyang & Liu, Jiahe & Jiang, Lei, 2024. "Climate Adaptation through Trade: Evidence and Mechanism from Heatwaves on Firms' Imports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. repec:ags:aaea22:335955 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Kishore, Avinash & Kumar, Anjani, 2024. "Climate shocks and fertilizer responses: Field-level evidence for rice production in Bangladesh," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344280, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    5. Michelson, Hope & Gourlay, Sydney & Lybbert, Travis & Wollburg, Philip, 2023. "Review: Purchased agricultural input quality and small farms," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Chen, Xiaoguang & Cui, Xiaomeng & Gao, Jing, 2023. "Differentiated agricultural sensitivity and adaptability to rising temperatures across regions and sectors in China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. François Bareille & Raja Chakir, 2024. "Structural identification of weather impacts on crop yields: Disentangling agronomic from adaptation effects," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(3), pages 989-1019, May.
    8. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    9. Cui, Xiaomeng & Zhong, Zheng, 2024. "Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Cui, Xiaomeng & Gafarov, Bulat & Ghanem, Dalia & Kuffner, Todd, 2024. "On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    11. Anna Josephson & Jeffrey D. Michler & Talip Kilic & Siobhan Murray, 2024. "The Mismeasure of Weather: Using Remotely Sensed Earth Observation Data in Economic Context," Papers 2409.07506, arXiv.org.
    12. Mulubrhan Amare & Priyanka Parvathi & Trung Thanh Nguyen, 2023. "Micro insights on the pathways to agricultural transformation: Comparative evidence from Southeast Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 69-87, March.
    13. Arndt Feuerbacher & Jonas Luckmann, 2023. "Labour‐saving technologies in smallholder agriculture: An economy‐wide model with field operations," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(1), pages 56-82, January.
    14. Kan, Iddo & Reznik, Ami & Kaminski, Jonathan & Kimhi, Ayal, 2023. "The impacts of climate change on cropland allocation, crop production, output prices and social welfare in Israel: A structural econometric framework," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Cui, Xiaomeng & Tang, Qu, 2024. "Extreme heat and rural household adaptation: Evidence from Northeast China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jeffrey D. Michler & Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi & Jonathan Giezendanner & Anna Josephson & Valerien O. Pede & Elizabeth Tellman, 2024. "Impact Evaluations in Data Poor Settings: The Case of Stress-Tolerant Rice Varieties in Bangladesh," Papers 2409.02201, arXiv.org.
    18. Joshua D. Merfeld, 2023. "Labor elasticities, market failures, and misallocation: Evidence from Indian agriculture," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(5), pages 623-637, September.
    19. Amare, Mulubrhan & Balana, Bedru, 2023. "Climate change, income sources, crop mix, and input use decisions: Evidence from Nigeria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    20. Li, Man, 2023. "Adaptation to expected and unexpected weather fluctuations: Evidence from Bangladeshi smallholder farmers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    21. Zappalà, Guglielmo, 2024. "Adapting to climate change accounting for individual beliefs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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