The potential scope for the application of pollution permits to reducing car ownership in the UK : Some preliminary thoughts

The application of the National Traffic Growth Forecasts published in 1989 to concurrently published vehicle ownership figures produces a projected total of a possible 35 million vehicles on the UK's roads by the year 2025. This projection, compounded by strong evidence of increasing vehicle usage, implies increased levels of congestion and, in all probability, increasing levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Despite this prognosis the Government has fallen a long way short of committing itself to strong traffic management policies, such as the introduction of road pricing and significant increases in fuel duties. Whilst acknowledging the potential role of such measures, this paper seeks to consider whether the concept of tradable pollution permits, which, increasingly, are being used in the USA to limit emissions from fixed points, can have any application to reducing levels of car ownership, and hence congestion and pollution. It suggests that car licence tax discs, obtained through the payment of Vehicle Excise Duty, should be limited in number and auctioned on the free market, with the total number in circulation being reduced on a continual basis. The monies raised from these auctions would be recycled for investment in public transport in order to reduce the inevitable hardship that would result from people being denied access to car ownership. It is concluded that, whilst such an initiative would be politically unpopular, it would necessarily succeed in halting the upward spiral of car ownership, congestion and pollution, and would, given the appropriate political response, act as a strong imperative for governments to refocus their policies on public transport.