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The lead-time reliability paradox and inconsistent value-of-reliability estimates

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  • Tyworth, John E.
  • Saldanha, John

Abstract

The value-of-reliability (VOR) reflects the savings in inventory-system costs from more reliable (less variable) lead times. Previous studies have revealed that more reliable, but positively skewed, lead times could actually increase optimal safety inventory when the probability of satisfying all demand during a replenishment cycle drops below 70%. Researchers claim that this paradox affects most firms and that it explains the inconsistent VOR estimates found in the transportation economics literature. Our investigation reveals that firms interested in high product availability may safely ignore the paradox and that less lead-time variability consistently increases VOR, the paradox notwithstanding.

Suggested Citation

  • Tyworth, John E. & Saldanha, John, 2014. "The lead-time reliability paradox and inconsistent value-of-reliability estimates," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 76-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:70:y:2014:i:c:p:76-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2014.06.009
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    Cited by:

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    3. Tyworth, John E., 2018. "A note on lead-time paradoxes and a tale of competing prescriptions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 139-150.
    4. Ponte, Borja & Costas, José & Puche, Julio & Pino, Raúl & de la Fuente, David, 2018. "The value of lead time reduction and stabilization: A comparison between traditional and collaborative supply chains," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 165-185.
    5. Saldanha, John P., 2022. "Estimating the reorder point for a fill-rate target under a continuous review policy in the presence of non-standard lead-time demand distributions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Zhang, Jiayuan & Yalcin, Mehmet G. & Hales, Douglas N., 2021. "Elements of paradoxes in supply chain management literature: A systematic literature review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).

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