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Crowding cost estimation with large scale smart card and vehicle location data

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  • Hörcher, Daniel
  • Graham, Daniel J.
  • Anderson, Richard J.

Abstract

Crowding discomfort is an external cost of public transport trips imposed on fellow passengers that has to be measured in order to derive optimal supply-side decisions. This paper presents a comprehensive method to estimate the user cost of crowding in terms of the equivalent travel time loss, in a revealed preference route choice framework. Using automated demand and train location data we control for fluctuations in crowding conditions on the entire length of a metro journey, including variations in the density of standing passengers and the probability of finding a seat. The estimated standing penalty is 26.5% of the uncrowded value of in-vehicle travel time. An additional passenger per square metre on average adds 11.9% to the travel time multiplier. These results are in line with earlier revealed preference values, and suggest that stated choice methods may overestimate the user cost of crowding. As a side-product, and an important input of the route choice analysis, we derive a novel passenger-to-train assignment method to recover the daily crowding and standing probability pattern in the metro network.

Suggested Citation

  • Hörcher, Daniel & Graham, Daniel J. & Anderson, Richard J., 2017. "Crowding cost estimation with large scale smart card and vehicle location data," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 105-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:105-125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2016.10.015
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