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Confidence interval estimation for path flow estimator

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  • Chootinan, Piya
  • Chen, Anthony

Abstract

The uncertainty of an origin–destination (O–D) trip table estimate is affected by two factors: (i) the multiplicity of solutions due to the underspecified nature of the problem, and (ii) the errors of traffic counts. In this paper, a confidence interval estimation procedure for path flow estimator (PFE) is developed for assessing the quality of O–D trip tables estimated from traffic counts. The confidence interval estimation consists of two parts: (i) a generalized demand scale (GDS) measure for quantifying the intrinsic underspecified nature of the O–D estimation problem at various spatial levels, and (ii) an error bound to quantify the contribution of input errors (traffic counts) to the estimation results. Numerical results using PFE as the O–D estimator show that the proposed confidence interval estimation procedure is able to separate the two sources of uncertainty in constructing the confidence intervals at various spatial levels. Simulation results also confirm that the proposed quality measure indeed contain the true estimates within the defined confidence intervals.

Suggested Citation

  • Chootinan, Piya & Chen, Anthony, 2011. "Confidence interval estimation for path flow estimator," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1680-1698.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1680-1698
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2011.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Muqing & Chen, Anthony, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis for transit equilibrium assignment and applications to uncertainty analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 175-202.
    2. Fu, Hao & Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Ma, Wei & Chen, Bi Yu & Ho, H.W., 2022. "Optimization of multi-type sensor locations for simultaneous estimation of origin-destination demands and link travel times with covariance effects," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 19-47.
    3. Salari, Mostafa & Kattan, Lina & Lam, William H.K. & Lo, H.P. & Esfeh, Mohammad Ansari, 2019. "Optimization of traffic sensor location for complete link flow observability in traffic network considering sensor failure," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 216-251.
    4. Lo, Hong K. & Chen, Anthony & Castillo, Enrique, 2016. "Robust network sensor location for complete link flow observability under uncertaintyAuthor-Name: Xu, Xiangdong," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-20.
    5. Ryu, Seungkyu & Chen, Anthony & Michael Zhang, H. & Recker, Will, 2014. "Path flow estimator for planning applications in small communities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 212-242.
    6. Fu, Hao & Lam, William H.K. & Shao, Hu & Kattan, Lina & Salari, Mostafa, 2022. "Optimization of multi-type traffic sensor locations for estimation of multi-period origin-destination demands with covariance effects," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Simonelli, Fulvio & Marzano, Vittorio & Papola, Andrea & Vitiello, Iolanda, 2012. "A network sensor location procedure accounting for o–d matrix estimate variability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1624-1638.
    8. Li, Tao & Wan, Yan, 2019. "Estimating the geographic distribution of originating air travel demand using a bi-level optimization model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 267-291.

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