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Sensitivity of prices to demand shocks: A natural experiment in the San Francisco Bay Area

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  • Bilotkach, Volodymyr
  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
  • Talavera, Oleksandr

Abstract

We analyze the impact of a freeway interchange collapse in the San Francisco Bay Area on the difference in airfare quotes for travel into the area’s main airports. The incident temporarily made Oakland airport a less attractive choice for traveling to San Francisco, so we hypothesize that fares for travel into Oakland will be relatively lower while the freeway interchange was out of service. We test our contention using a sample of fare quotes collected on-line, and find the expected effect of a magnitude of 6–7%. Our results imply the following important conclusions. First, the demand-side shock was well absorbed by the supply side. Second, adjustment of prices and return to the status quo once the shock vanished was swift.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2012. "Sensitivity of prices to demand shocks: A natural experiment in the San Francisco Bay Area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1137-1151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:7:p:1137-1151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.02.018
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & Oleksandr Talavera & Nam Vu, 2023. "The flood that caused a drought," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(4), pages 965-981, October.
    3. Wang, Kun & Xia, Wenyi & Zhang, Anming & Zhang, Qiong, 2018. "Effects of train speed on airline demand and price: Theory and empirical evidence from a natural experiment," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 99-130.
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    5. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Brown, Mike, 2017. "Does a new rail rapid transit line announcement affect various commercial property prices differently?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 74-90.
    6. Cerquera Dussán, Daniel & Ullrich, Hannes, 2010. "Consumer welfare and unobserved heterogeneity in discrete choice models: The value of alpine road tunnels," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-095, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural experiment; Price stability; Demand shocks; Congestion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

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