IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v45y2011i8p755-764.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A model to assess public transport demand stability

Author

Listed:
  • Bass, Pablo
  • Donoso, Pedro
  • Munizaga, Marcela

Abstract

Transport authorities, especially those in developing countries where rising income stimulate increased car ownership rates, are often concerned with maintaining or increasing levels of public transport use. Therefore, the ability to identify clients at risk of abandoning the system can be valuable for remedial measures, allowing for more focused quality improvements. We present and apply a model that determines the probability of migrating from public to private transport at both aggregated and disaggregated levels. In application, the model predicted migration with 60% accuracy in the first preference recovery measure. The proposed model can improve the understanding of the behavior of public transport users, the analysis of demand stability and the factors influencing migration. This, in turn, can help to focus policy and management measures and increase the efficiency of public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Bass, Pablo & Donoso, Pedro & Munizaga, Marcela, 2011. "A model to assess public transport demand stability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 755-764, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:8:p:755-764
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856411000966
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. María Yáñez & Patricio Mansilla & Juan de Ortúzar, 2010. "The Santiago Panel: measuring the effects of implementing Transantiago," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 125-149, January.
    2. K A Smith & R J Willis & M Brooks, 2000. "An analysis of customer retention and insurance claim patterns using data mining: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(5), pages 532-541, May.
    3. Víctor Cantillo & Juan de Dios Ortúzar & Huw C. W. L. Williams, 2007. "Modeling Discrete Choices in the Presence of Inertia and Serial Correlation," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(2), pages 195-205, May.
    4. Hensher, David A. & Stopher, Peter & Bullock, Philip, 2003. "Service quality--developing a service quality index in the provision of commercial bus contracts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 499-517, July.
    5. Gaundry, Marc J. I. & Dagenais, Marcel G., 1979. "The dogit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 105-111, June.
    6. H C W L Williams, 1977. "On the Formation of Travel Demand Models and Economic Evaluation Measures of User Benefit," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 9(3), pages 285-344, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis André Wernecke Fumagalli & Denis Alcides Rezende & Thiago André Guimarães, 2022. "Data Intelligence in Public Transportation: Sustainable and Equitable Solutions to Urban Modals in Strategic Digital City Subproject," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Thomas E. Guerrero & C. Angelo Guevara & Elisabetta Cherchi & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2021. "Addressing endogeneity in strategic urban mode choice models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 2081-2102, August.
    3. Gschwender, Antonio & Munizaga, Marcela & Simonetti, Carolina, 2016. "Using smart card and GPS data for policy and planning: The case of Transantiago," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 242-249.
    4. Bastani, Parisa & Heywood, John B. & Hope, Chris, 2012. "The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 517-548.
    5. Wang, Jiangbo & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Liu, Kai, 2022. "Exploring the subscribing behavior of customized bus passengers: Active users versus inactive users," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Di Ciommo, Floridea & Comendador, Julio & López-Lambas, María Eugenia & Cherchi, Elisabetta & Ortúzar, Juan de Dios, 2014. "Exploring the role of social capital influence variables on travel behaviour," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 46-55.
    2. Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin & Susilo, Yusak O. & Franklin, Joel P., 2016. "Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 78-95.
    3. Cascetta, Ennio & Cartenì, Armando, 2014. "The hedonic value of railways terminals. A quantitative analysis of the impact of stations quality on travellers behaviour," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 41-52.
    4. Cascetta, Ennio & Papola, Andrea, 2009. "Dominance among alternatives in random utility models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 170-179, February.
    5. Swait, Joffre, 2001. "Choice set generation within the generalized extreme value family of discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 643-666, August.
    6. Andre Carrel & Raja Sengupta & Joan L. Walker, 2017. "The San Francisco Travel Quality Study: tracking trials and tribulations of a transit taker," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 643-679, July.
    7. Lissy Paix & Abu Toasin Oakil & Frank Hofman & Karst Geurs, 2022. "The influence of panel effects and inertia on travel cost elasticities for car use and public transport," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 989-1016, June.
    8. La Paix Puello, Lissy & Olde-Kalter, Marie-José & Geurs, Karst T., 2017. "Measurement of non-random attrition effects on mobility rates using trip diaries data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 51-64.
    9. María Yáñez & Elisabetta Cherchi & Benjamin Heydecker & Juan de Dios Ortúzar, 2011. "On the Treatment of Repeated Observations in Panel Data: Efficiency of Mixed Logit Parameter Estimates," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 393-418, September.
    10. Sarker, Rumana Islam & Kaplan, Sigal & Mailer, Markus & Timmermans, Harry J.P., 2019. "Applying affective event theory to explain transit users’ reactions to service disruptions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 593-605.
    11. Ratanavaraha, Vatanavongs & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj, 2014. "Model of users׳ expectations of drivers of sightseeing buses: confirmatory factor analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 253-262.
    12. Concepcion Roman & Juan Carlos Martin & Raquel Espino, 2011. "Using Stated Preferences (Sp) To Analyze The Service Quality Of Public Transport," ERSA conference papers ersa11p86, European Regional Science Association.
    13. Şerafettin SEVİM & Birol YILDIZ & Nilüfer DALKILIÇ, 2016. "Risk Assessment for Accounting Professional Liability Insurance," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 24(29).
    14. Kazagli, Evanthia & de Lapparent, Matthieu, 2023. "A discrete choice modeling framework of heterogenous decision rules accounting for non-trading behavior," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Cartenì, Armando & Pariota, Luigi & Henke, Ilaria, 2017. "Hedonic value of high-speed rail services: Quantitative analysis of the students’ domestic tourist attractiveness of the main Italian cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 348-365.
    16. Yai, Tetsuo & Iwakura, Seiji & Morichi, Shigeru, 1997. "Multinomial probit with structured covariance for route choice behavior," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-207, June.
    17. Eliasson, Jonas & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2000. "A model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 375-394, June.
    18. Bolduc, Denis & Kaci, Mustapha, 1993. "Estimation des modèles probit polytomiques : un survol des techniques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 69(3), pages 161-191, septembre.
    19. Chica-Olmo, Jorge & Gachs-Sánchez, Héctor & Lizarraga, Carmen, 2018. "Route effect on the perception of public transport services quality," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 40-48.
    20. Eugenio Zucchelli & Andrew M Jones & Nigel Rice, 2012. "The evaluation of health policies through dynamic microsimulation methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 2-20.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:8:p:755-764. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.