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Commercial fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles in California

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  • Golob, Thomas F.
  • Torous, Jane
  • Bradley, Mark
  • Brownstone, David
  • Crane, Soheila Soltani
  • Bunch, David S.

Abstract

Fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles ('AFVs' operating on fuels such as electricity, compressed natural gas, or methanol) is investigated through an analysis of a 1994 survey of 2000 fleet sites in California. This survey gathered information on site characteristics, awareness of mandates and incentives for AFV operation, and AFV purchase intentions. The survey also contained stated preference tasks in which fleet decision makers simulated fleet-replacement purchases by indicating how they would allocate their choices across a 'selector list' of hypothetical future vehicles. A discrete choice model was estimated to obtain preference tradeoffs for fuel types and other vehicle attributes. The overall tradeoff between vehicle range and vehicle capital cost in the sample was $80/mile of range, but with some variation by fleet sector. The availability (density) of off-site alternative fuel stations was important to fleet operators, indicating that fleets are willing to trade off more fuel infrastructure for changes in other attributes, e.g. increased capital or operating costs, or more limited vehicle range. Public fleets (local and county government) were the most sensitive to the capital cost of new vehicles. Along with schools, they are the only fleet sector where reduced tailpipe emission levels are a significant predictor of vehicle choice. Fleet operators in the private sector base their vehicle selection less on environmental concerns than on practical operational needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Golob, Thomas F. & Torous, Jane & Bradley, Mark & Brownstone, David & Crane, Soheila Soltani & Bunch, David S., 1997. "Commercial fleet demand for alternative-fuel vehicles in California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 219-233, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:31:y:1997:i:3:p:219-233
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    1. Hill, Daniel H, 1987. "Derived Demand Estimation with Survey Experiments: Commercial Electric Vehicles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(2), pages 277-285, May.
    2. Bunch, David S. & Bradley, Mark & Golob, Thomas F. & Kitamura, Ryuichi & Occhiuzzo, Gareth P., 1993. "Demand for clean-fuel vehicles in California: A discrete-choice stated preference pilot project," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 237-253, May.
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    4. Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Golob, Thomas F., 1994. "A Demand Forecasting System for Clean-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt79c3g7xv, University of California Transportation Center.
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    9. Jiali Yu & Peng Yang & Kai Zhang & Faping Wang & Lixin Miao, 2018. "Evaluating the Effect of Policies and the Development of Charging Infrastructure on Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-25, September.
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    13. Kuby, Michael, 2019. "The opposite of ubiquitous: How early adopters of fast-filling alt-fuel vehicles adapt to the sparsity of stations," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 46-57.
    14. Becky Loo & S. Wong & Timothy Hau, 2006. "Introducing alternative fuel vehicles in Hong Kong: views from the public light bus industry," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 605-619, November.
    15. Helveston, John Paul & Liu, Yimin & Feit, Elea McDonnell & Fuchs, Erica & Klampfl, Erica & Michalek, Jeremy J., 2015. "Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S. and China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 96-112.
    16. Libo Wu & Changhe Li & Haoqi Qian & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2013. "Understanding the Consumption Behaviors on Electric Vehicles in China - A Stated Preference Analysis," Working Papers 2013.79, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    17. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Funke, Simon & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "What is the market potential of electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S14/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    18. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Rietveld, Piet & van Ommeren, Jos N., 2013. "Consumer valuation of changes in driving range: A meta-analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-45.
    19. Hardman, Scott & Shiu, Eric & Steinberger-Wilckens, Robert, 2016. "Comparing high-end and low-end early adopters of battery electric vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 40-57.
    20. Daziano, Ricardo A. & Chiew, Esther, 2012. "Electric vehicles rising from the dead: Data needs for forecasting consumer response toward sustainable energy sources in personal transportation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 876-894.
    21. Konstantinou, Theodora & Gkritza, Konstantina, 2023. "Are we getting close to truck electrification? U.S. truck fleet managers’ stated intentions to electrify their fleets," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    22. Danielis, Romeo & Scorrano, Mariangela & Giansoldati, Marco & Rotaris, Lucia, 2019. "A meta-analysis of the importance of the driving range in consumers’ preference studies for battery electric vehicles," Working Papers 19_2, SIET Società Italiana di Economia dei Trasporti e della Logistica.
    23. Kelley, Scott & Kuby, Michael, 2017. "Decentralized refueling of compressed natural gas (CNG) fleet vehicles in Southern California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 350-359.
    24. Daziano, Ricardo A., 2013. "Conditional-logit Bayes estimators for consumer valuation of electric vehicle driving range," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 429-450.

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