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Projected fuel savings and emissions reductions from light-vehicle fuel economy standards

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  • DeCicco, John M.

Abstract

This study applies a model of motor vehicle stock turnover to estimate the effect of strengthened fuel economy standards on gasoline consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and hydrocarbon emissions by light-duty vehicles in the United States. Without significant policy change, fuel consumption is projected to grow from a 1990 level of 6.3 million barrels per day (Mbd) to 9 Mbd by 2010. Five policy-driven scenarios are analyzed, ranging up to a new vehicle fuel economy improvement rate of 6% per year. For the 6%/yr scenario, the analysis projects gasoline savings of 2.9 Mbd and emissions reductions of 147 million metric tons per year (carbon equivalent) of greenhouse gases and 495,000 metric tons per year of evaporative hydrocarbons by 2010. The sensitivity of the projections to various factors is also examined. The most critical assumption is the baseline (i.e., the extent of fuel economy change in the absence of stronger standards). Other factors examined, such as growth in vehicle miles of travel (VMT), VMT rebound, credits toward regulatory compliance, rollbacks of standards, upper and lower bounds on a percentage increase standard, possible vehicle market shifts and fuel economy shortfall, were found to have smaller effects. Fuel economy standards are projected to be a reliable mechanism for controlling future gasoline consumption and associated pollution emissions in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • DeCicco, John M., 1995. "Projected fuel savings and emissions reductions from light-vehicle fuel economy standards," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 205-228, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:29:y:1995:i:3:p:205-228
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    1. Greene, David L., 1993. "Transportation and energy: The global environmental challege," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 163-166, May.
    2. David L. Greene, 1990. "CAFE OR PRICE?: An Analysis of the Effects of Federal Fuel Economy Regulations and Gasoline Price on New Car MPG, 1978-89," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 37-58.
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    1. Aditya, L. & Mahlia, T.M.I. & Rismanchi, B. & Ng, H.M. & Hasan, M.H. & Metselaar, H.S.C. & Muraza, Oki & Aditiya, H.B., 2017. "A review on insulation materials for energy conservation in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1352-1365.
    2. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Dulal, Hari B., 2009. "A review of regulatory instruments to control environmental externalities from the transport sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4867, The World Bank.
    3. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Dulal, Hari B., 2009. "Regulatory instruments to control environmental externalities from the transport sector," European Transport \ Trasporti Europei, ISTIEE, Institute for the Study of Transport within the European Economic Integration, issue 41, pages 80-112.
    4. Daly, Hannah E. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2011. "Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7815-7824.

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