IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v181y2024ics096585642400051x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing effects of pandemic-related policies on individual public transit travel patterns: A Bayesian online changepoint detection based framework

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Yuqian
  • Xu, Yang
  • Zhao, Zhan
  • Tu, Wei
  • Park, Sangwon
  • Li, Qingquan

Abstract

During a pandemic or natural disaster, people may alter transit usage behavior due to perception of changes in the environment. To effectively respond to these crises, it is important for governments and public transit agencies to understand when these changes occurred and how they were affected by relevant policies and responsive strategies. In this study, we develop a methodological framework based on Bayesian online changepoint detection (BOCD) to identify the occurrence time, direction, and persistency of changes in individual-level transit usage. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework in informing government decision-making in the context of COVID-19. Using Jeju Island, South Korea as a case study, we apply the framework over a nearly two-year smart card dataset collected from the beginning of 2019 till nine months into the pandemic. By focusing on frequent transit users, we detect when these users significantly changed their transit usage frequency during the pandemic and identify several types of users who experienced different behavior change patterns. Besides demonstrating the great heterogeneity in individual-level behavior changes, we perform a regression analysis to further understand how these changes were affected by key government policies (e.g., Risk alert, Social distancing, Public transit policy, and Eased social distancing). Our results suggest that only certain sets of policies appear to have significant effects. In particular, introducing Risk alert would cause a 277% to 317% increase in the number of users who reduced transit usage frequency. Policies that eased social distancing, though, would cause a 134% to 155% increase in the number of users with travel frequency increase. The proposed BOCD framework enables a scalable solution to identifying and understanding changes of individual transit behavior. The methodology and findings are beneficial for developing targeted policies and interventions to facilitate daily travel and public transit operations during public health crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Yuqian & Xu, Yang & Zhao, Zhan & Tu, Wei & Park, Sangwon & Li, Qingquan, 2024. "Assessing effects of pandemic-related policies on individual public transit travel patterns: A Bayesian online changepoint detection based framework," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:181:y:2024:i:c:s096585642400051x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2024.104003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585642400051X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2024.104003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaplan, Sigal & Tchetchik, Anat & Greenberg, Doron & Sapir, Itsik, 2022. "Transit use reduction following COVID-19: The effect of threat appraisal, proactive coping and institutional trust," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 338-356.
    2. Zhao, Zhan & Koutsopoulos, Haris N. & Zhao, Jinhua, 2018. "Detecting pattern changes in individual travel behavior: A Bayesian approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 73-88.
    3. Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F. & Steinbrenner, Anne & Valsson, Trausti & Kim, Sungyop, 2015. "Urban household travel behavior in a time of economic crisis: Changes in trip making and transit importance," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 68-75.
    4. Aliisa Heiskanen & Yannick Galipeau & Marc-André Langlois & Julian Little & Curtis L. Cooper, 2022. "SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Those Utilizing Public Transportation or Working in the Transportation Industry: A Rapid Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Parker, Madeleine E.G. & Li, Meiqing & Bouzaghrane, Mohamed Amine & Obeid, Hassan & Hayes, Drake & Frick, Karen Trapenberg & Rodríguez, Daniel A. & Sengupta, Raja & Walker, Joan & Chatman, Daniel G., 2021. "Public transit use in the United States in the era of COVID-19: Transit riders’ travel behavior in the COVID-19 impact and recovery period," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 53-62.
    6. Marra, Alessio D. & Sun, Linghang & Corman, Francesco, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on public transport usage and route choice: Evidences from a long-term tracking study in urban area," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 258-268.
    7. Moon-Hyun Kim & Jiwon Lee & Tae-Hyoung Tommy Gim, 2021. "How did travel mode choices change according to Coronavirus Disease 2019? Lessons from Seoul, South Korea," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 437-454, July.
    8. Sanmay Shelat & Oded Cats & Sander van Cranenburgh, 2021. "Traveller behaviour in public transport in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands," Papers 2104.10973, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2022.
    9. Chen, Chao & Feng, Tao & Gu, Xiaoning & Yao, Baozhen, 2022. "Investigating the effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic countermeasures on the use of public transport: A case study of The Netherlands," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 98-107.
    10. Michał Wielechowski & Katarzyna Czech & Łukasz Grzęda, 2020. "Decline in Mobility: Public Transport in Poland in the time of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Shanna Trichês Lucchesi & Virginia Bergamaschi Tavares & Miriam Karla Rocha & Ana Margarita Larranaga, 2022. "Public Transport COVID-19-Safe: New Barriers and Policies to Implement Effective Countermeasures under User’s Safety Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, March.
    12. Alfredo Aloi & Borja Alonso & Juan Benavente & Rubén Cordera & Eneko Echániz & Felipe González & Claudio Ladisa & Raquel Lezama-Romanelli & Álvaro López-Parra & Vittorio Mazzei & Lucía Perrucci & Darí, 2020. "Effects of the COVID-19 Lockdown on Urban Mobility: Empirical Evidence from the City of Santander (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Esmailpour, Javad & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Aghajanzadeh, Mohammad & De Gruyter, Chris, 2022. "Has COVID-19 changed our loyalty towards public transport? Understanding the moderating role of the pandemic in the relationship between service quality, customer satisfaction and loyalty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 80-103.
    14. Ruth Shortall & Niek Mouter & Bert Van Wee, 2022. "COVID-19 passenger transport measures and their impacts," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 441-466, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konečný Vladimír & Zuzaniak Martin & Brídziková Mária & Jaśkiewicz Marek, 2023. "Regional Differences in the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Demand for Bus Transport in the Slovak Republic," LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics, Sciendo, vol. 14(1), pages 146-157, January.
    2. Xu, Xinyue & Liu, Jing & Zhang, Anzhong & XieLan, Shiyu & Li, Zinuo & Liu, Jun & Ran, Bin, 2024. "The impacts of COVID-19 on route choice with guidance information in urban rail transit of megacities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    3. Pengxiang Ding & Suwei Feng & Jianning Jiang, 2023. "The Impact of Urban Rail Transit Epidemic Prevention Measures on Passengers’ Safety Perception," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Borsati, Mattia & Nocera, Silvio & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Pezoa, Raúl & Basso, Franco & Quilodrán, Paulina & Varas, Mauricio, 2023. "Estimation of trip purposes in public transport during the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of Santiago, Chile," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Ishibashi, Sumiko & Kobayashi, Taiki & Taniguchi, Mamoru, 2024. "Does emphasis change in transportation mode choice affect workers’ actual mode choice? Implications from Japan in the COVID-19 era," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 343-355.
    7. Xi, Haoning & Li, Qin & Hensher, David A. & Nelson, John D. & Ho, Chinh, 2023. "Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on travel behavior in different socio-economic segments," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 98-112.
    8. Long, Alfie & Carney, Ffion & Kandt, Jens, 2023. "Who is returning to public transport for non-work trips after COVID-19? Evidence from older citizens' smart cards in the UK's second largest city region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    9. Marta Borowska-Stefańska & Maxim A. Dulebenets & Michał Kowalski & Filip Turoboś & Szymon Wiśniewski, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Daily Mobility of the Elderly Living in Small Cities in Lodz Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(9), pages 1-23, May.
    10. Iglesias, Vicente & Raveau, Sebastián, 2024. "Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on crowding aversion in public transport and transport mode choice: The case of Santiago, Chile," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 167-174.
    11. Corazza, Maria Vittoria & Musso, Antonio, 2021. "Urban transport policies in the time of pandemic, and after: An ARDUOUS research agenda," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 31-44.
    12. Fang, Da & Guo, Yan, 2022. "Flow of goods to the shock of COVID-19 and toll-free highway policy: Evidence from logistics data in China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Veronika Harantová & Ambróz Hájnik & Alica Kalašová & Tomasz Figlus, 2022. "The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Traffic Flow Characteristics, Emissions Production and Fuel Consumption at a Selected Intersection in Slovakia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    14. Wang, Wei & Miao, Wei & Liu, Yongdong & Deng, Yiting & Cao, Yunfei, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the ride-sharing industry and its recovery: Causal evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 128-141.
    15. Mihai ȚICHINDELEAN & Claudia OGREAN & Mihaela HERCIU, 2024. "Do Loyal Customers Buy Differently? Examining Customers’ Loyalty In A Self-Service Setting," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 19(1), pages 350-367, April.
    16. Liang, Zhiyuan & Tang, Yili & Yu, Jianing & Wang, Yacan, 2024. "A collective incentive strategy to manage ridership rebound and consumer surplus in mass transit systems," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Chunguang Liu & Xinyu Zuo & Xiaoning Gu & Mengru Shao & Chao Chen, 2023. "Activity Duration under the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Comparative Analysis among Different Urbanized Areas Using a Hazard-Based Duration Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-28, June.
    18. Esmailpour, Javad & Aghabayk, Kayvan & Aghajanzadeh, Mohammad & De Gruyter, Chris, 2022. "Has COVID-19 changed our loyalty towards public transport? Understanding the moderating role of the pandemic in the relationship between service quality, customer satisfaction and loyalty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 80-103.
    19. Castaldo, Sandro & Ciacci, Andrea & Penco, Lara & Profumo, Giorgia, 2024. "Which trust layer better counterbalances the risk impact on travel intentions in a crisis scenario?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Heejoon Kim & Woon-Kyung Song & Jin-Woo Park, 2022. "The Effect of COVID-19 Countermeasures on Korean Air Passenger Confidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-14, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:181:y:2024:i:c:s096585642400051x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.