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The influence of demographic stochasticity on evolutionary dynamics and stability

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  • Shpak, Max
  • Orzack, Steven Hecht
  • Barany, Ernest

Abstract

We derive the frequency-dependent selection coefficient caused by “demographic†stochasticity resulting from the random sampling of opponents an individual faces during behavioral “contests†with other individuals. The mean, variance, and higher moments of fitness all influence the direction and strength of selection. A frequency-dependent trait can be stable when an individual’s fitness depends upon an infinite number of contests with other individuals and unstable when it depends upon a finite number of contests. Conversely, unstable equilibria for an infinite number of contests can be stable when there is a finite number of contests. At stable equilibria for a finite number of contests, higher moments of fitness can outweigh the joint influence of the first two moments so that natural selection favors “within-generation†or developmental-trait variation (also known as phenotypic plasticity) contrary to the claim that natural selection always acts against such variation. We use second-moment estimates of the fitness functions in a diffusion approximation to compute fixation probabilities of competing strategies. These estimates are shown to be qualitatively consistent with those derived from simulations when population sizes are sufficiently large to ignore the contribution of higher-moment terms. We also show that explicit solutions to the diffusion approximation only exist for pair-wise interactions that lead to positive frequency-dependent selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Shpak, Max & Orzack, Steven Hecht & Barany, Ernest, 2013. "The influence of demographic stochasticity on evolutionary dynamics and stability," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 47-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:88:y:2013:i:c:p:47-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2013.06.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin A. Nowak & Akira Sasaki & Christine Taylor & Drew Fudenberg, 2004. "Emergence of cooperation and evolutionary stability in finite populations," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6983), pages 646-650, April.
    2. Christoph Hauert & Michael Doebeli, 2004. "Spatial structure often inhibits the evolution of cooperation in the snowdrift game," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6983), pages 643-646, April.
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    1. Brian McLoone & Wai-Tong Louis Fan & Adam Pham & Rory Smead & Laurence Loewe, 2018. "Stochasticity, Selection, and the Evolution of Cooperation in a Two-Level Moran Model of the Snowdrift Game," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-14, February.
    2. Zhang, Shuai & Clark, Ruaridh & Huang, Yunke, 2020. "Frequency-dependent strategy selection in a hunting game with a finite population," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).

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