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Temporally variable dispersal and demography can accelerate the spread of invading species

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  • Ellner, Stephen P.
  • Schreiber, Sebastian J.

Abstract

We analyze how temporal variability in local demography and dispersal combine to affect the rate of spread of an invading species. Our model combines state-structured local demography (specified by an integral or matrix projection model) with general dispersal distributions that may depend on the state of the individual or its parent. It allows very general patterns of stationary temporal variation in both local demography and in the frequency and distribution of dispersal distances. We show that expressions for the asymptotic spread rate and its sensitivity to parameters, which have been derived previously for less general models, continue to hold. Using these results we show that random temporal variability in dispersal can accelerate population spread. Demographic variability can further accelerate spread if it is positively correlated with dispersal variability, for example if high-fecundity years are also years in which juveniles tend to settle further away from their parents. A simple model for the growth and spread of patches of an invasive plant (perennial pepperweed, Lepidium latifolium) illustrates these effects and shows that they can have substantial impacts on the predicted speed of an invasion wave. Temporal variability in dispersal has received very little attention in both the theoretical and empirical literature on invasive species spread. Our results suggest that this needs to change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellner, Stephen P. & Schreiber, Sebastian J., 2012. "Temporally variable dispersal and demography can accelerate the spread of invading species," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 82(4), pages 283-298.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:82:y:2012:i:4:p:283-298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2012.03.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benaïm, Michel & Schreiber, Sebastian J., 2009. "Persistence of structured populations in random environments," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 19-34.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reluga, Timothy C., 2016. "The importance of being atomic: Ecological invasions as random walks instead of waves," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 157-169.
    2. Erickson, Richard A. & Eager, Eric A. & Brey, Marybeth K. & Hansen, Michael J. & Kocovsky, Patrick M., 2017. "An integral projection model with YY-males and application to evaluating grass carp control," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 361(C), pages 14-25.
    3. Marculis, Nathan G. & Evenden, Maya L. & Lewis, Mark A., 2020. "Modeling the dispersal–reproduction trade-off in an expanding population," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 147-159.

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