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Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments

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  • Lee, Charlotte T.
  • Tuljapurkar, Shripad

Abstract

We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Charlotte T. & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 2008. "Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(4), pages 473-482.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:73:y:2008:i:4:p:473-482
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2008.03.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lee Ronald, 1993. "Accidental and Systematic Change in Population History: Homeostasis in a Stochastic Setting," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, January.
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    4. Tommy Bengtsson & Cameron Campbell & James Z. Lee, 2004. "Life Under Pressure: Mortality and Living Standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262025515, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gauthier, Nicolas, 2019. "Multilevel Simulation of Demography and Food Production in Ancient Agrarian Societies: A Case Study from Roman North Africa," SocArXiv 5be6a, Center for Open Science.
    2. Lee, Charlotte T. & Puleston, Cedric O. & Tuljapurkar, Shripad, 2009. "Population and prehistory III: Food-dependent demography in variable environments," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 179-188.
    3. Clement Tisdell & Serge Svizzero, 2020. "The Ability in Antiquity of Some Agrarian Societies to Avoid the Malthusian Trap and Develop," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 202-227, April.
    4. Hedefalk, Finn & Quaranta, Luciana & Bengtsson, Tommy, 2016. "Unequal lands: Soil type, nutrition and child mortality in southern Sweden, 1850-1914," Lund Papers in Economic History 148, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    5. Barraquand, Frédéric & Yoccoz, Nigel G., 2013. "When can environmental variability benefit population growth? Counterintuitive effects of nonlinearities in vital rates," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Kirch, P.V. & Asner, G. & Chadwick, O.A. & Field, J. & Ladefoged, T. & Lee, C. & Puleston, C. & Tuljapurkar, S. & Vitousek, P.M., 2012. "Building and testing models of long-term agricultural intensification and population dynamics: A case study from the Leeward Kohala Field System, Hawai’i," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 18-28.
    7. Kirch, P.V. & Asner, G. & Chadwick, O.A. & Field, J. & Ladefoged, T. & Lee, C. & Puleston, C. & Tuljapurkar, S. & Vitousek, P.M., 2012. "Reprint: Building and testing models of long-term agricultural intensification and population dynamics: A case study from the Leeward Kohala Field System, Hawai’i," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 54-64.

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