IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/telpol/v39y2015i1p14-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of the gap and (non-)Internet users evolution based on population biology dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Neokosmidis, Ioannis
  • Avaritsiotis, Nikolaos
  • Ventoura, Zoe
  • Varoutas, Dimitris

Abstract

The evolution of Internet and non-Internet users as well as the dynamics of their divide is studied using population biology concepts. Users׳ evolution and future trends are estimated by applying Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters of the proposed model are determined by both an analytical and a simulation method. The presented model is applied to two cases; Greece and Lithuania. The accuracy of the obtained results is confirmed through actual data. Internet users are constantly increasing while they outperform non-users in the last years. It is confirmed that the maximum growth rate of Internet users in both countries coincides to periods with effective regulation, broadband promotion, provision of bundle products and alternative operators׳ investments. Model׳s estimation and forecasting ability can be used as a valuable tool for decision and policy makers. Several policy guidelines are provided helping to achieve higher penetration levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Neokosmidis, Ioannis & Avaritsiotis, Nikolaos & Ventoura, Zoe & Varoutas, Dimitris, 2015. "Assessment of the gap and (non-)Internet users evolution based on population biology dynamics," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 14-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:14-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.telpol.2014.10.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030859611400158X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.telpol.2014.10.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Economides & V. Brian Viard, 2010. "The Effect of Content on Global Internet Adoption," Working Papers 10-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Götz, Georg, 2013. "Competition, regulation, and broadband access to the internet," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 1095-1109.
    3. Menzie D. Chinn & Robert W. Fairlie, 2007. "The determinants of the global digital divide: a cross-country analysis of computer and internet penetration," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 16-44, January.
    4. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman, 2001. "Cross-Country Technology Diffusion: The Case of Computers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 328-335, May.
    5. Billon, Margarita & Marco, Rocio & Lera-Lopez, Fernando, 0. "Disparities in ICT adoption: A multidimensional approach to study the cross-country digital divide," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 596-610, November.
    6. Robert W. Fairlie & Daniel O. Beltran & Kuntal K. Das, 2010. "HOME COMPUTERS AND EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM THE NLSY97 and CPS," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(3), pages 771-792, July.
    7. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
    8. Jung, Hyun-Joon & Na, Kyoung-Youn & Yoon, Chang-Ho, 2013. "The role of ICT in Korea’s economic growth: Productivity changes across industries since the 1990s," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 292-310.
    9. Nicholas Economides, 1997. "The Economics of Networks," Brazilian Electronic Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, vol. 1(0), December.
    10. Hargittai, Eszter, 1999. "Weaving the Western Web: explaining differences in Internet connectivity among OECD countries," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(10-11), pages 701-718, November.
    11. Cho, Youngsang & Koo, Yoonmo, 2012. "Investigation of the effect of secondary market on the diffusion of innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(7), pages 1362-1371.
    12. Bourreau, Marc & Cambini, Carlo & Doğan, Pınar, 2012. "Access pricing, competition, and incentives to migrate from “old” to “new” technology," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 713-723.
    13. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    14. Goldenberg, Jacob & Libai, Barak & Muller, Eitan, 2010. "The chilling effects of network externalities," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 4-15.
    15. Sassi, Seifallah & Goaied, Mohamed, 2013. "Financial development, ICT diffusion and economic growth: Lessons from MENA region," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 252-261.
    16. Edward M. Crenshaw & Kristopher K. Robison, 2006. "Globalization and the Digital Divide: The Roles of Structural Conduciveness and Global Connection in Internet Diffusion," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 87(1), pages 190-207, March.
    17. Andrés, Luis & Cuberes, David & Diouf, Mame & Serebrisky, Tomás, 0. "The diffusion of the Internet: A cross-country analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5-6), pages 323-340, June.
    18. Vicente, María Rosalía & López, Ana Jesús, 2011. "Assessing the regional digital divide across the European Union-27," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 220-237, April.
    19. Dauvin, Magali & Grzybowski, Lukasz, 2014. "Estimating broadband diffusion in the EU using NUTS 1 regional data," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 96-104.
    20. Vicente, Maria Rosalia & Lopez, Ana Jesus, 2006. "Patterns of ICT diffusion across the European Union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 45-51, October.
    21. Baláž, Vladimír & Williams, Allan M., 2012. "Diffusion and competition of voice communication technologies in the Czech and Slovak Republics, 1948–2009," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 393-404.
    22. Menzie D. Chinn & Robert W. Fairlie, 2010. "ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 153-167, February.
    23. Mariscal, Judith, 0. "Digital divide in a developing country," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(5-6), pages 409-428, June.
    24. Laciana, Carlos E. & Oteiza-Aguirre, Nicolás, 2014. "An agent based multi-optional model for the diffusion of innovations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 254-265.
    25. Modis, Theodore, 2005. "The end of the internet rush," OSF Preprints jt69h, Center for Open Science.
    26. López, Luis & Sanjuán, Miguel A.F., 2001. "Defining strategies to win in the Internet market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 512-534.
    27. Orviska, Marta & Hudson, John, 2009. "Dividing or uniting Europe? Internet usage in the EU," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 279-290, November.
    28. Margarita Billon & Roberto Ezcurra & Fernando Lera‐López, 2009. "Spatial Effects in Website Adoption by Firms in European Regions," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 54-84, March.
    29. Susmita Dasgupta & Somik Lall & David Wheeler, 2005. "Policy Reform, Economic Growth and the Digital Divide," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 229-243.
    30. Li, Raymond & Shiu, Alice, 2012. "Internet diffusion in China: A dynamic panel data analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 872-887.
    31. Bourreau, Marc & Cambini, Carlo & Hoernig, Steffen, 2012. "Ex ante regulation and co-investment in the transition to next generation access," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 399-406.
    32. Quibria, M. G. & Ahmed, Shamsun N. & Tschang, Ted & Reyes-Macasaquit, Mari-Len, 2003. "Digital divide: determinants and policies with special reference to Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 811-825, January.
    33. Kumbaroglu, Gürkan & Madlener, Reinhard & Demirel, Mustafa, 2008. "A real options evaluation model for the diffusion prospects of new renewable power generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1882-1908, July.
    34. Peres, Renana & Muller, Eitan & Mahajan, Vijay, 2010. "Innovation diffusion and new product growth models: A critical review and research directions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 91-106.
    35. Wong, Poh-Kam, 2002. "ICT production and diffusion in Asia Digital dividends or digital divide?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 167-187, June.
    36. Guidolin, Mariangela & Guseo, Renato, 2014. "Modelling seasonality in innovation diffusion," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 33-40.
    37. Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2009. "The economic impact of broadband on growth: A simultaneous approach," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 471-485, October.
    38. Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, Banji & Lal, Kaushalesh, 2005. "Internet diffusion in sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-country analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 507-527, August.
    39. Beilock, Richard & Dimitrova, Daniela V., 0. "An exploratory model of inter-country Internet diffusion," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 237-252, April.
    40. James, M.J., 2007. "From origins to implications : Key aspects in the debate over the digital divide," Other publications TiSEM 268eb10c-e0af-4818-8ef9-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    41. Distaso, Walter & Lupi, Paolo & Manenti, Fabio M., 2006. "Platform competition and broadband uptake: Theory and empirical evidence from the European union," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-106, March.
    42. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-440, June.
    43. Kallol Bagchi, 2005. "Factors Contributing to Global Digital Divide: Some Empirical Results," Journal of Global Information Technology Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 47-65, July.
    44. Chris Forman & Avi Goldfarb & Shane Greenstein, 2003. "How did Location Affect Adoption of the Commercial Internet? Global Village, Urban Density, and Industry Composition," NBER Working Papers 9979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Szeto, W.Y. & Wu, Yongzhong & Ho, Sin C., 2011. "An artificial bee colony algorithm for the capacitated vehicle routing problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 126-135, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carla Henriques & Clara Viseu, 2022. "Are ERDFs Devoted to Boosting ICTs in SMEs Inefficient? A Three-Stage SBM Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Hilbert, Martin, 2016. "The bad news is that the digital access divide is here to stay: Domestically installed bandwidths among 172 countries for 1986–2014," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 567-581.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Margarita Billon & Fernando Lera-Lopez & Rocio Marco, 2016. "ICT use by households and firms in the EU: links and determinants from a multivariate perspective," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(4), pages 629-654, November.
    2. Frederico Cruz-Jesus & Tiago Oliveira & Fernando Bacao & Zahir Irani, 2017. "Assessing the pattern between economic and digital development of countries," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 835-854, August.
    3. Frederico Cruz-Jesus & Tiago Oliveira & Fernando Bacao & Zahir Irani, 0. "Assessing the pattern between economic and digital development of countries," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-20.
    4. Szeles, Monica Răileanu, 2018. "New insights from a multilevel approach to the regional digital divide in the European Union," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 452-463.
    5. Margarita Billon & Fernando Lera-Lopez & Rocío Marco, 2010. "Differences in digitalization levels: a multivariate analysis studying the global digital divide," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(1), pages 39-73, April.
    6. Srinuan, Chalita & Bohlin, Erik, 2011. "Understanding the digital divide: A literature survey and ways forward," 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest 2011: Innovative ICT Applications - Emerging Regulatory, Economic and Policy Issues 52191, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    7. Li, Raymond & Shiu, Alice, 2012. "Internet diffusion in China: A dynamic panel data analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 872-887.
    8. Zhang, Xiaoqun, 2013. "Income disparity and digital divide: The Internet Consumption Model and cross-country empirical research," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 515-529.
    9. Thierry PENARD & Nicolas POUSSING & Gabriel ZOMO YEBE & Philémon NSI ELLA, 2012. "Comparing the Determinants of Internet and Cell Phone Use in Africa: Evidence from Gabon," Communications & Strategies, IDATE, Com&Strat dept., vol. 1(86), pages 65-83, 2nd quart.
    10. Menzie D. Chinn & Robert W. Fairlie, 2010. "ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 153-167, February.
    11. Feng, Guangchao Charles, 2015. "Determinants of Internet diffusion: A focus on China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 176-185.
    12. Dohse, Dirk & Lim, Cheng Yee, 2016. "Macro-geographic location and internet adoption in poor countries: What is behind the persistent digital gap?," Kiel Working Papers 2067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Bera, Subhasis, 2019. "Club convergence and drivers of digitalization across Indian states," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(8), pages 1-1.
    14. Richard Perkins & Eric Neumayer, 2011. "Is the internet really new after all?: the determinants of telecommunications diffusion in historical perspective," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 30800, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Myovella, Godwin & Karacuka, Mehmet & Haucap, Justus, 2021. "Determinants of digitalization and digital divide in Sub-Saharan African economies: A spatial Durbin analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(10).
    16. Mona Badran, 2014. "Young people and the digital divide in Egypt: an empirical study," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 4(2), pages 223-250, December.
    17. Rath, Badri Narayan & Panda, Bibhudutta & Akram, Vaseem, 2023. "Convergence and determinants of ICT development in case of emerging market economies," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    18. P. Guerrieri & M. Luciani & V. Meliciani, 2011. "The determinants of investment in information and communication technologies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 387-403.
    19. Bulman, George & Fairlie, Robert W., 2015. "Technology and Education: Computers, Software, and the Internet," IZA Discussion Papers 9432, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Jung, Juan, 2014. "Regional inequalities in the impact of broadband on productivity: Evidence from Brazil," MPRA Paper 56177, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:telpol:v:39:y:2015:i:1:p:14-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30471/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.