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Long-term GDP forecasts and the prospects for growth

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  • Modis, Theodore

Abstract

The growth of GDP is considered as a natural-growth process amenable to description by the logistic-growth equation. The S-shaped logistic pattern provides good descriptions and forecasts for both nominal and real GDP per capita in the US over the last 80years. This enables the calculation of a long-term forecast for inflation, which is to enter a declining trend not so far in the future. The two logistics are well advanced, more so for nominal GDP. The assumption for logistic growth works even better for Japan whose nominal GDP per capita has already completed tracing out an entire logistic trajectory. The economic woes of industrialized countries could be attributed to the saturation of growth there, as if a niche in nature had been filled to capacity. In contrast, GDP growth in China and India is in the very early stages of logistic growth still indistinguishable from exponential patterns. The ceiling of these logistics can be anywhere between 5 and 10 times today's levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Modis, Theodore, 2013. "Long-term GDP forecasts and the prospects for growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(8), pages 1557-1562.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:8:p:1557-1562
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.010
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    Cited by:

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