Forecasting of changes in electricity consumption due to EV diffusion in South Korea: Development of integrated model considering diffusion and macro-econometric model

Electrification is on the increase globally. The transportation sector is being electrified to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. South Korea aims to diffuse 8.3 million battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2040 to reduce emissions in the transportation sector. However, BEV diffusion policies have not been considered for BEVs' electricity consumption. Given that the rapid diffusion of BEVs significantly increases the electricity demand, forecasting BEVs' electricity consumption is necessary to inform electricity production plans. Furthermore, electricity is produced through various energy sources, and electricity prices and consumption are affected; therefore, forecasts that reflect the overall energy market are needed. This study presents a forecasting model for BEV demand and energy consumption by combining it with a macroeconometric model that reflects the overall energy market and socioeconomic impact using an innovation diffusion model. Incorporating electricity prices and renewable energy consumption derived from the macroeconometric model, annual BEV demand and electricity consumption are predicted. Moreover, BEV demand is more diffused and slower when forecasted using the Generalized Bass model with electricity prices and renewable energy consumption, compared to forecast without these factors, and the predictive power of BEVs is superior to that forecasted using the Bass Model alone.