IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v202y2024ics004016252400129x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of technology innovation and economic growth in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Aminullah, Erman

Abstract

This article explored the scenarios of future technology innovation and economic growth. The feedback economics' perspective was applied in forecasting future technology innovation and economic growth. The system dynamics modelling of economic growth by incorporating technology innovation revealed that: i. General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) investment should be linked with industrial policy as a leverage point; ii. The post-COVID-19 industrial policy should diffuse GPTs for inclusive growth and sustainable development, it is different with the Indonesian pre-COVID-19's industrial policy, specifically before the 1997 economic crisis; iii. Rethinking the Indonesian industrial policy is to rejuvenate the existing industrial-based GPTs' complex, and the inter-ministerial policy coordination is a challenge to implement the industrial-based GPTs policy instrument. Putting the GPTs' innovation into practice by using industrial policy for future economic growth sustainability is the unique insight on reindustrialization. The scientific contributions of this study were: i. on theoretical basis, the framework and model enriched the feedback economics' view of Cavana et al. and; ii. on innovation economics' studies, the framework and model support the concepts of Lundvall. Finally, future work from this study is designing different feedback structure that could generate different results.

Suggested Citation

  • Aminullah, Erman, 2024. "Forecasting of technology innovation and economic growth in Indonesia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:202:y:2024:i:c:s004016252400129x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123333
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016252400129X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123333?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fahad Khan & Pratibha Pandey & Tarun Kumar Upadhyay, 2022. "Applications of Nanotechnology-Based Agrochemicals in Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture: An Overview," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-13, October.
    2. Nelson,Richard R. & Dosi,Giovanni & Helfat,Constance E. & Pyka,Andreas & Saviotti,Pier Paolo & Lee,Keun, 2018. "Modern Evolutionary Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108446198.
    3. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A Review of International Literature," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4vsqk7docb9nmophtp29pk68cr is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Leach, Melissa & MacGregor, Hayley & Scoones, Ian & Wilkinson, Annie, 2021. "Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Li, Xing & Hou, Keqiang, 2019. "R&D based knowledge capital and future firm growth: Evidence from China’s Growth Enterprise Market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 287-298.
    7. Landesmann, Michael A. & Stöllinger, Roman, 2019. "Structural change, trade and global production networks: An ‘appropriate industrial policy’ for peripheral and catching-up economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 7-23.
    8. Magdalena Radulescu & Luminita Serbanescu & Crenguta Ileana Sinisi, 2019. "Consumption vs. Investments for stimulating economic growth and employment in the CEE Countries – a panel analysis," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 2329-2353, January.
    9. Lipsey, Richard G. & Carlaw, Kenneth I. & Bekar, Clifford T., 2005. "Economic Transformations: General Purpose Technologies and Long-Term Economic Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290895.
    10. Martin Kunc & John D. W. Morecroft & Sally Brailsford, 2018. "Special issue on advances in system dynamics modelling from the perspective of other simulation methods," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 87-89, April.
    11. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2021. "The proper role of government in the market economy: The case of the post-COVID recovery," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C).
    12. Wong, Chan-Yuan, 2011. "Rent-seeking, industrial policies and national innovation systems in Southeast Asian economies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 231-243.
    13. Nelson,Richard R. & Dosi,Giovanni & Helfat,Constance E. & Pyka,Andreas & Saviotti,Pier Paolo & Lee,Keun, 2018. "Modern Evolutionary Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108427432.
    14. Jan Kregel, 2008. "The Continuing Policy Relevance of Keynes’s General Theory," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Mathew Forstater & L. Randall Wray (ed.), Keynes for the Twenty-First Century, chapter 0, pages 127-144, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Moayad Al Rasasi & Yasir Alzahrani & Mohammed Alassaf, 2021. "On the Causal Relationship between Household Consumption and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 165-177, June.
    16. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    17. Daniel Landau, 1985. "Government expenditure and economic growth in the developed countries: 1952–76," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 459-477, January.
    18. Chung, Young-Iob, 2007. "South Korea in the Fast Lane: Economic Development and Capital Formation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195325454.
    19. Aminullah, Erman & Erman, Erwiza, 2021. "Policy innovation and emergence of innovative health technology: The system dynamics modelling of early COVID-19 handling in Indonesia," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2022. "Forecasting the Covid-19 recession and recovery: Lessons from the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 596-612.
    21. Murat A. Yülek, 2018. "How Nations Succeed: Manufacturing, Trade, Industrial Policy, and Economic Development," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-13-0568-9, June.
    22. Watanabe, Chihiro & Naveed, Kashif & Tou, Yuji & Neittaanmäki, Pekka, 2018. "Measuring GDP in the digital economy: Increasing dependence on uncaptured GDP," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 226-240.
    23. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    24. Diercks, Gijs & Larsen, Henrik & Steward, Fred, 2019. "Transformative innovation policy: Addressing variety in an emerging policy paradigm," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 880-894.
    25. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "Forecasting Inflation and GDP growth: Comparison of Automatic Leading Indicator (ALI) Method with Macro Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)," Working Papers 554, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    26. John Harvey, 2002. "Keynes' Chapter Twenty-Two: A System Dynamics Model," Working Papers 200201, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
    27. Sven Wydra, 2019. "Value Chains for Industrial Biotechnology in the Bioeconomy-Innovation System Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-16, April.
    28. Diane Coyle, 2014. "GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10183.
    29. Solow, Robert M., 2005. "Reflections on Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-10, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark Knell, 2021. "The digital revolution and digitalized network society," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 9-25, April.
    2. Chang, Sungyong & Kim, Hyunseob & Song, Jaeyong & Lee, Keun, 2024. "Dynamics of imitation versus innovation in technological leadership change: Latecomers’ catch-up strategies in diverse technological regimes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(9).
    3. Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello, 2022. "Top R&D investors, structural change and the R&D growth performance of young and old firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 1-33, March.
    4. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    5. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    6. Mendonça, Sandro & Damásio, Bruno & Charlita de Freitas, Luciano & Oliveira, Luís & Cichy, Marcin & Nicita, António, 2022. "The rise of 5G technologies and systems: A quantitative analysis of knowledge production," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4).
    7. Gianluca Capone & Franco Malerba & Richard R. Nelson & Luigi Orsenigo & Sidney G. Winter, 2019. "History friendly models: retrospective and future perspectives," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    8. Ron Boschma, 2024. "An evolutionary approach to regional studies on global value chains," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(7), pages 1492-1500, July.
    9. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    10. Dimitrios PAPARAS & Christian RICHTER & Alexandros PAPARAS, 2015. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth, Empirical Evidence in European Union," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 239-268, December.
    11. Ron Boschma, 2022. "Evolutionary Economic Geography and Policy," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2220, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Oct 2022.
    12. Seo, Takashi, 2021. "Schumpeter's paradox reconsidered: The need for a theory of circular flow," MPRA Paper 106802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Monasterolo, Irene & Roventini, Andrea & Foxon, Tim J., 2019. "Uncertainty of climate policies and implications for economics and finance: An evolutionary economics approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 177-182.
    14. Aistleitner, Matthias & Gräbner, Claudius & Hornykewycz, Anna, 2021. "Theory and empirics of capability accumulation: Implications for macroeconomic modeling," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(6).
    15. Wolf Rogowski & Wolfram Elsner, 2021. "How economics can help mitigate climate change - a critical review and conceptual analysis of economic paradigms," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2106, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    16. Labhard, Vincent & Lehtimäki, Jonne, 2022. "Digitalisation, institutions and governance, and growth: mechanisms and evidence," Working Paper Series 2735, European Central Bank.
    17. Marília Bassetti Marcato, 2023. "Regional Dynamics in Global Production Sharing: Evidence from “Factory South America”," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 35(5), pages 1173-1196, October.
    18. Pier-Paolo Saviotti & Andreas Pyka¤ & Bogang Jun, 2020. "Diversification, structural change, and economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1301-1335, November.
    19. Levent Onural & Mustafa Çelebi Pınar & Can Fırtına, 2021. "Modeling Economic Activities and Random Catastrophic Failures of Financial Networks via Gibbs Random Fields," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(2), pages 203-232, August.
    20. Frolov, Daniil, 2019. "Present and future of evolutionary economics: post-institutionalist’s opinion," MPRA Paper 97659, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:202:y:2024:i:c:s004016252400129x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.