Short-lived product returns forecasting when customers are unwilling to return the product: A grey-graphical evaluation and review technique

Consumer electronics, such as mobile phones, laptops, and tablets, encounter the challenge of short product life cycles due to the rapid advancement of technology, marketing models, and rapidly changing consumer tastes. This study attempts to provide a forecasting model for a short-lived product for closed-loop supply chain planning. Importantly, we model the setting where the customers prefer to store the product instead of returning it for various reasons such as security and secondary use. We proposed a generic method that can be implemented for any technology-driven product's returns and remanufacturing process. We used the Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique to calculate the probability and quantity of product returns, the quantity of modules, parts, materials, and disposal. Then, we employed the Grey-Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique to calculate the expected time interval for core returns and the expected interval for the availability of module/parts/material for reconditioning/ remanufacturing of the product. An illustrative case study demonstrates the results of the forecasting model. Further, we analyzed the effect of customers' unwillingness to return the product on the reverse network. Our analysis asserts that the customer storing an end-of-use product has a greater impact on the probability of overall product return. Our analysis found that when customers tend to return the product instead of storing it for secondary use, the equivalence probability of returns can increase up to 91 %. In addition, we also address the effect of product return on the “ecological rucksack” of mobile phones. This can help policymakers design hassle-free return experiences and attractive customer incentives.