IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v161y2020ics0040162520310775.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of 3D printing technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Lili
  • Jiang, Shan
  • Zhang, Shiyun

Abstract

Technological trajectories provide valuable information on technological development as well as its potential impact. Using 3D printing technology as a case study, this paper maps the trajectory of technological development and explores the contribution of various knowledge sources (from both geographical and technological perspectives). Based on patent citation analysis, our results show that there was a main concentrated technological trajectory between 1998 and the early 2000s, indicating a technology lock-in situation. However, a great diversification can be observed after the mid-2000s. The U.S. and Japan were the pioneer countries to develop core 3DP technologies, while China and South Korea contributed relatively more to the recent core 3DP technologies. By tracking technology domains in the patents cited by 3DP technologies, we also detect contributions from different technology categories in the process of 3DP technology development. At a disaggregated level, this study provides insights on how technologies from various fields contributed to the development of 3D printing technology. The diversified knowledge contributions from different countries and different fields indicate not only a broader range of future business opportunities in various domains, but also a far-ranging social impact in various nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Lili & Jiang, Shan & Zhang, Shiyun, 2020. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of 3D printing technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:161:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310775
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520310775
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120251?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Dosi & Sébastien Lechevalier & Angelo Secchi, 2010. "Interfirm heterogeneity: nature, sources and consequences for industrial dynamics. An introduction," Post-Print hal-00642680, HAL.
    2. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Huang, Lu & Guo, Ying & Porter, Alan L., 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 267-285.
    3. Bogers, Marcel & Hadar, Ronen & Bilberg, Arne, 2016. "Additive manufacturing for consumer-centric business models: Implications for supply chains in consumer goods manufacturing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 225-239.
    4. Acosta, Manuel & Coronado, Daniel, 2003. "Science-technology flows in Spanish regions: An analysis of scientific citations in patents," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1783-1803, December.
    5. Autant-Bernard, Corinne & Fadairo, Muriel & Massard, Nadine, 2013. "Knowledge diffusion and innovation policies within the European regions: Challenges based on recent empirical evidence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 196-210.
    6. Karvonen, Matti & Kässi, Tuomo, 2013. "Patent citations as a tool for analysing the early stages of convergence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(6), pages 1094-1107.
    7. Roberto Fontana & Alessandro Nuvolari & Bart Verspagen, 2009. "Mapping technological trajectories as patent citation networks. An application to data communication standards," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 311-336.
    8. Berman, Barry, 2012. "3-D printing: The new industrial revolution," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 155-162.
    9. Bart Verspagen, 2007. "Mapping Technological Trajectories As Patent Citation Networks: A Study On The History Of Fuel Cell Research," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 93-115.
    10. Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 1995. "An Evolutionary Model of Long Term Cyclical Variations of Catching Up and Falling Behind," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 209-227, September.
    11. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    12. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    13. Kim, Dong-hyu & Lee, Heejin & Kwak, Jooyoung, 2017. "Standards as a driving force that influences emerging technological trajectories in the converging world of the Internet and things: An investigation of the M2M/IoT patent network," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1234-1254.
    14. Hu, Albert G. Z. & Jaffe, Adam B., 2003. "Patent citations and international knowledge flow: the cases of Korea and Taiwan," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-880, June.
    15. Xu, Guannan & Wu, Yuchen & Minshall, Tim & Zhou, Yuan, 2018. "Exploring innovation ecosystems across science, technology, and business: A case of 3D printing in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 208-221.
    16. Momeni, Abdolreza & Rost, Katja, 2016. "Identification and monitoring of possible disruptive technologies by patent-development paths and topic modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 16-29.
    17. Rothmann, Wasko & Koch, Jochen, 2014. "Creativity in strategic lock-ins: The newspaper industry and the digital revolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 66-83.
    18. Ying Huang & Donghua Zhu & Yue Qian & Yi Zhang & Alan L. Porter & Yuqin Liu & Ying Guo, 2017. "A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: a case study of 3D printing," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(1), pages 185-204, April.
    19. Nakamura, Hiroko & Suzuki, Shinji & Sakata, Ichiro & Kajikawa, Yuya, 2015. "Knowledge combination modeling: The measurement of knowledge similarity between different technological domains," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 187-201.
    20. Garud, Raghu & Karnoe, Peter, 2003. "Bricolage versus breakthrough: distributed and embedded agency in technology entrepreneurship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 277-300, February.
    21. Fleming, Lee & Sorenson, Olav, 2001. "Technology as a complex adaptive system: evidence from patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1019-1039, August.
    22. D.K. Robinson & Lu Huang & Ying Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01071140, HAL.
    23. Dosi, Giovanni & Nelson, Richard R., 2010. "Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 51-127, Elsevier.
    24. Fagerberg, Jan & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. "Technology-gaps, innovation-diffusion and transformation: an evolutionary interpretation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1291-1304, December.
    25. Adam Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1999. "International Knowledge Flows: Evidence From Patent Citations," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1-2), pages 105-136.
    26. Giovanni Dosi & Sébastien Lechevalier & Angelo Secchi, 2010. "Introduction: Interfirm heterogeneity--nature, sources and consequences for industrial dynamics," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 19(6), pages 1867-1890, December.
    27. Areti Gkypali & Kostas Kounetas & Kostas Tsekouras, 2019. "European countries’ competitiveness and productive performance evolution: unraveling the complexity in a heterogeneity context," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 665-695, April.
    28. Jiang, Ruth & Kleer, Robin & Piller, Frank T., 2017. "Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 84-97.
    29. Harianto, Farid & Pennings, Johannes M., 1994. "Technological convergence and scope of organizational innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-304, May.
    30. Lori Rosenkopf & Atul Nerkar, 2001. "Beyond local search: boundary‐spanning, exploration, and impact in the optical disk industry," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 287-306, April.
    31. Lili Wang & Ad Notten & Alexandru Surpatean, 2013. "Interdisciplinarity of nano research fields: a keyword mining approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 94(3), pages 877-892, March.
    32. Cantwell, John & Vertova, Giovanna, 2004. "Historical evolution of technological diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 511-529, April.
    33. Giovanni Dosi, 2000. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Chapters, in: Innovation, Organization and Economic Dynamics, chapter 2, pages 63-114, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    34. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    35. Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson & Adam Jaffe, 1992. "Ivory Tower Versus Corporate Lab: An Empirical Study of Basic Research and Appropriability," NBER Working Papers 4146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Su, Hsin-Ning & Moaniba, Igam M., 2017. "Investigating the dynamics of interdisciplinary evolution in technology developments," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 12-23.
    37. Keijl, S. & Gilsing, V.A. & Knoben, J. & Duysters, G., 2016. "The two faces of inventions: The relationship between recombination and impact in pharmaceutical biotechnology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1061-1074.
    38. Arthur, W. Brian, 2007. "The structure of invention," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 274-287, March.
    39. Liu, John S. & Lu, Louis Y.Y. & Lu, Wen-Min & Lin, Bruce J.Y., 2013. "Data envelopment analysis 1978–2010: A citation-based literature survey," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-15.
    40. Douglas K. R. Robinson & Lu Huang & Yan Guo & Alan L. Porter, 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Post-Print hal-01070417, HAL.
    41. Baumers, Martin & Dickens, Phill & Tuck, Chris & Hague, Richard, 2016. "The cost of additive manufacturing: machine productivity, economies of scale and technology-push," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 193-201.
    42. Lili Wang & Adam Szirmai, 2013. "The Unexpected Convergence of Regional Productivity in Chinese Industry, 1978--2005," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 29-53, March.
    43. Lee Fleming, 2001. "Recombinant Uncertainty in Technological Search," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 117-132, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    2. Christian Ulrich & Benjamin Frieske & Stephan A. Schmid & Horst E. Friedrich, 2022. "Monitoring and Forecasting of Key Functions and Technologies for Automated Driving," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, May.
    3. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Bhatt, Priyanka C. & Kumar, Vimal & Chen, Hsueh-Chen & Chang, Yu-Hsin & Su, Fang-Pei, 2021. "Identifying the impact of patent family on the patent trajectory: A case of thin film solar cells technological trajectories," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    4. Pengfei Wang & Nguepi Tsafack Elvis & Hua Cheng, 2024. "Structural Characteristics and Evolution of the Dual Network of Patent Technology Collaboration and Innovation in China–Japan–ROK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Zhou, Yong & Yang, Qijin & Lu, Shuo, 2023. "Research on the identification and formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion: Empirical evidence from China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Bouncken, Ricarda B. & Qiu, Yixin & García, F. Javier Sendra, 2021. "Flexible pattern matching approach: Suggestions for augmenting theory evolvement," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Alessandri, Enrico, 2023. "Identifying technological trajectories in the mining sector using patent citation networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Alessandri, Enrico, 2021. "Identifying technological trajectories in the mining sector using patent citation networks," MERIT Working Papers 2021-048, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    9. Jang, Hyejin & Lee, Suyeong & Yoon, Byungun, 2023. "Data-driven techno-socio co-evolution analysis based on a topic model and a hidden Markov model," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Euiyoung Chung & So Young Sohn, 2023. "Processing-in-Memory Development Strategy for AI Computing Using Main-Path and Doc2Vec Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    11. Zhang, Zhengyi & Jin, Jun & Li, Shijing & Zhang, Yuanmin, 2023. "Digital transformation of incumbent firms from the perspective of portfolios of innovation," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Hou, Jianhua & Tang, Shiqi & Zhang, Yang & Song, Haoyang, 2023. "Does prior knowledge affect patent technology diffusion? A semantic-based patent citation contribution analysis," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    2. Yan, Hong-Bin & Li, Ming, 2022. "Consumer demand based recombinant search for idea generation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    3. Sun, Bixuan & Kolesnikov, Sergey & Goldstein, Anna & Chan, Gabriel, 2021. "A dynamic approach for identifying technological breakthroughs with an application in solar photovoltaics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Zhu, Lin & Cunningham, Scott W., 2022. "Unveiling the knowledge structure of technological forecasting and social change (1969–2020) through an NMF-based hierarchical topic model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Coccia, Mario & Wang, Lili, 2015. "Path-breaking directions of nanotechnology-based chemotherapy and molecular cancer therapy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 155-169.
    6. Battke, Benedikt & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Stollenwerk, Stephan & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2016. "Internal or external spillovers—Which kind of knowledge is more likely to flow within or across technologies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 27-41.
    7. Dibiaggio, Ludovic & Nasiriyar, Maryam & Nesta, Lionel, 2014. "Substitutability and complementarity of technological knowledge and the inventive performance of semiconductor companies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1582-1593.
    8. Zhou, Yong & Yang, Qijin & Lu, Shuo, 2023. "Research on the identification and formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion: Empirical evidence from China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Sick, Nathalie & Bröring, Stefanie, 2022. "Exploring the research landscape of convergence from a TIM perspective: A review and research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Wang, Heli & Chen, Wei-Ru, 2010. "Is firm-specific innovation associated with greater value appropriation? The roles of environmental dynamism and technological diversity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 141-154, February.
    11. Christopher Esposito & David Rigby, 2017. "When Buzz and Pipelines Fail," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1701, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2017.
    12. Huenteler, Joern & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Ossenbrink, Jan & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2016. "Technology life-cycles in the energy sector — Technological characteristics and the role of deployment for innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 102-121.
    13. Francesco Lamperti & Franco Malerba & Roberto Mavilia & Giorgio Tripodi, 2019. "Does the Position in the Inter-sectoral Knowledge Space affect the International Competitiveness of Industries?," LEM Papers Series 2019/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/43aq8ffdqb82sbffkv69bt1eaa is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/43aq8ffdqb82sbffkv69bt1eaa is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Singh, Anuraag & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2021. "Technological improvement rate predictions for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    17. Joaquín M. Azagra-Caro, 2012. "Access to universities’ public knowledge: who’s more nationalist?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 91(3), pages 671-691, June.
    18. Alessandro Caiani, 2017. "Innovation Dynamics and Industry Structure Under Different Technological Spaces," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(3), pages 307-341, November.
    19. Estolatan, Eric & Geuna, Aldo, 2019. "Looking forward via the Past: An Investigation of the Evolution of the Knowledge Base of Robotics Firms," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201904, University of Turin.
    20. Atul Nerkar & Srikanth Paruchuri, 2005. "Evolution of R&D Capabilities: The Role of Knowledge Networks Within a Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 771-785, May.
    21. Hwang, Seonho & Shin, Juneseuk, 2019. "Extending technological trajectories to latest technological changes by overcoming time lags," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 142-153.
    22. Barbieri, Nicolò & Marzucchi, Alberto & Rizzo, Ugo, 2020. "Knowledge sources and impacts on subsequent inventions: Do green technologies differ from non-green ones?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(2).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:161:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.