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From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies

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  • Hof, Andries F.
  • Carrara, Samuel
  • De Cian, Enrica
  • Pfluger, Benjamin
  • van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E.
  • de Boer, Harmen Sytze
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

In this paper, we apply two global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and one detailed European electricity system model to explore the consequences of different narrative-based low-carbon scenarios on the electricity system from the global to national scale. The narratives are based on insights from socio-technical transition analysis on niche-innovations. The main aim of this exercise is to examine the solution space in low-carbon scenarios for electricity supply from the global to national scale, which is largely neglected when focusing on cost-optimal solutions only. We show that taking into account insights from socio-technical transition analysis can have large impacts on the projected transition strategy, especially regarding relatively costly technologies that currently have a high momentum. For instance, we find that the share of offshore wind in electricity generation in Europe is less than 3% or up to 27% by 2050, depending on the underlying narrative. These ranges are useful input for policy-makers, as they show the degree of flexibility in mitigation options. Furthermore, our analysis shows that combining IAMs with more detailed sectoral models illuminates the challenges on a more detailed geographical scale, for instance regarding storage requirements and the need for interconnectivity across European borders.

Suggested Citation

  • Hof, Andries F. & Carrara, Samuel & De Cian, Enrica & Pfluger, Benjamin & van Sluisveld, Mariësse A.E. & de Boer, Harmen Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2020. "From global to national scenarios: Bridging different models to explore power generation decarbonisation based on insights from socio-technical transition case studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519318013
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119882
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    2. Hof, A.F. & Esmeijer, K. & de Boer, H.S. & Daioglou, V. & Doelman, J.C. & Elzen, M.G.J. den & Gernaat, D.E.H.J. & van Vuuren, D.P., 2022. "Regional energy diversity and sovereignty in different 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    3. Gardumi, F. & Keppo, I. & Howells, M. & Pye, S. & Avgerinopoulos, G. & Lekavičius, V. & Galinis, A. & Martišauskas, L. & Fahl, U. & Korkmaz, P. & Schmid, D. & Montenegro, R. Cunha & Syri, S. & Hast, A, 2022. "Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
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