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Energy transitions and social revolutions

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  • Fischer-Kowalski, Marina
  • Rovenskaya, Elena
  • Krausmann, Fridolin
  • Pallua, Irene
  • Mc Neill, John R.

Abstract

The transition from a traditional agrarian to a fossil fuel based energy regime began before the industrial revolution and is still ongoing. This paper explores the relation of this transition process and social revolutions. Using statistical analysis, we find that at the very beginning of countries' energy transition, a critical phase can be identified, within which social revolutions are most likely to happen. This applies to the grand revolutions across the past five centuries investigated for a core set of industrial and emerging economies, as well as to supplementary samples of Latin American and post-World War II developing countries. No statistically significant relation between the historical time and the pace of transition towards modern fuels is found, which means that the energy transition does not accelerate. Among the sample of developing countries with revolutions after World War II we find an even slower pace of transition to an industrial energy regime. Apparently, transitions in primary energy source and energy abundance are not just a matter of technological change, but strongly interact with the social, institutional and political fabric of societies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer-Kowalski, Marina & Rovenskaya, Elena & Krausmann, Fridolin & Pallua, Irene & Mc Neill, John R., 2019. "Energy transitions and social revolutions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 69-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:138:y:2019:i:c:p:69-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.08.010
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