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Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight

Author

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  • Ilmola, Leena
  • Rovenskaya, Elena

Abstract

Emerging uncertainties present a challenge to decision making. On the basis of a review of existing scenario methods, we examine how ontological uncertainty, that is, the situation in which we do not know what we do not know, is included in scenario processes. We present three experimental foresight methods applicable for cases dominated by uncertainty; structural scenarios, shock scenarios and action portfolio and Agent-Based Modeling. The main finding of our experiment is that in order to address uncertainty, we have to relax the plausibility requirements and focus the analysis on futures that are perceived to be non-probable. In this way we are able to challenge existing perceptions and multiply the number of mental models of the futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilmola, Leena & Rovenskaya, Elena, 2016. "Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 85-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:106:y:2016:i:c:p:85-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    2. Efstathios Tapinos & Graham Leask & Mike Brown, 2023. "Perceived environmental turbulence and corporate strategy: The case of the UK recession," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    3. Leena Ilmola‐Sheppard & Phillip White, 2024. "Extreme uncertainty requires extreme resilience: Identifying the features of resilience in complex social systems faced with deep uncertainty," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), September.
    4. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Ilmola-Sheppard, Leena, 2018. "Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 205-220.

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