IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v55y2020icp222-231.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multiple relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure evolution in China–Based on Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis and VAR model

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Rui
  • Qi, Zhongying
  • Shu, Yumin

Abstract

Industrial structure can describe not only the structural relationships between industrial output capacities, but also the structural relationships between industrial economic outputs. Fixed-asset investment affects industrial structure through the formation of capital stock and contemporaneous demand. Based on VAR model, this paper utilizes Granger causality test and other econometric methods to analyze the hysteresis relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure in China from 1991 to 2017. In addition, the contemporaneous relationships are identified by employing the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis. The results show that: The hysteresis relationships exist in primary and secondary industries between fixed-asset investment and their respective value added. The fixed-asset investment in primary and tertiary industries are the contemporaneous causes of positive effect to the value added of primary industry. And the value added of secondary industry is the contemporaneous cause of positive effect to its fixed-asset investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Rui & Qi, Zhongying & Shu, Yumin, 2020. "Multiple relationships between fixed-asset investment and industrial structure evolution in China–Based on Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) analysis and VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 222-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:55:y:2020:i:c:p:222-231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.09.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X20303933
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.09.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fagerberg, Jan, 2000. "Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 393-411, December.
    2. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    3. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2018. "What drives natural gas prices in the United States? – A directed acyclic graph approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 79-88.
    4. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1992. "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong Is the Nexus?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 157-212.
    5. Henning Mühlen & Octavio Escobar, 2020. "The role of FDI in structural change: Evidence from Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 557-585, March.
    6. Caroline Betts & Rahul Giri & Rubina Verma, 2017. "Trade, Reform, and Structural Transformation in South Korea," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(4), pages 745-791, November.
    7. Alan Hochstein, 2006. "Harrod–Domar Growth and the Production Possibility Curve," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 427-427, August.
    8. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
    9. Lydia Greunz, 2004. "Industrial structure and innovation - evidence from European regions," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 14(5), pages 563-592, December.
    10. Sumei Tang & E. A. Selvanathan & S. Selvanathan, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1292-1309, October.
    11. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    12. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    13. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2007. "Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 429-443, March.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Ozawa, Terutomo, 1979. "International Investment and Industrial Structure: New Theoretical Implications from the Japanese Experience," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 72-92, March.
    16. Wu, Haitao & Hao, Yu & Weng, Jia-Hsi, 2019. "How does energy consumption affect China's urbanization? New evidence from dynamic threshold panel models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 24-38.
    17. Amir Yaron & Leonid Kogan & Dmitry Livdan, 2004. "Futures Prices in a Production Economy with Investment Constraints," 2004 Meeting Papers 128, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    19. Hao, Yu & Guo, Yunxia & Guo, Yitong & Wu, Haitao & Ren, Siyu, 2020. "Does outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) affect the home country’s environmental quality? The case of China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 109-119.
    20. Fengchun Li & Cheng Yu, 2020. "OFDI and Home Country Structural Upgrading: Does Spatial Difference Exist in China?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(7), pages 1532-1546, May.
    21. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
    22. Blomström, Magnus & Konan, Denise & Lipsey, Robert E., 2000. "FDI in the Restructuring of the Japanese Economy," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 371, Stockholm School of Economics.
    23. Magnus Blomström & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1996. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(1), pages 269-276.
    24. Lydia Greunz, 2004. "Industrial structure and innovation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/9461, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    25. John Laitner, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 545-561.
    26. Jingfeng Zhao & Jianmin Tang, 2015. "Industrial Structural Change and Economic Growth in China, 1987–2008," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(2), pages 1-21, March.
    27. Geroski, P A, 1990. "Innovation, Technological Opportunity, and Market Structure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 586-602, July.
    28. Yang, Jian & Guo, Hui & Wang, Zijun, 2006. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2681-2700, October.
    29. Qingjie Liu & Biliang Hu, 2019. "A Study on the Two-way Causal Relationship Between Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth: Empirical Test Based on 40 Years of Reform and Opening-up in China," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 11(1-2), pages 98-118, January.
    30. Shan-Li Wang & Feng-Wen Chen & Bing Liao & Cuiju Zhang, 2020. "Foreign Trade, FDI and the Upgrading of Regional Industrial Structure in China: Based on Spatial Econometric Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, January.
    31. Peneder, Michael, 2003. "Industrial structure and aggregate growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 427-448, December.
    32. Mukherjee, Subhadip & Chanda, Rupa, 2017. "Differential effects of trade openness on Indian manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 273-292.
    33. W.B. Reddaway, 1937. "The General Theory Of Employment, Interest And Money," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 12(1-2), pages 28-36, June.
    34. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    35. Montobbio, Fabio, 2002. "An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 387-414, December.
    36. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Yang, Lili, 2017. "High speed rail and urban service industry agglomeration: Evidence from China's Yangtze River Delta region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 174-183.
    37. Yang, Zihui & Zhao, Yongliang, 2014. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in India: Evidence from directed acyclic graphs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 533-540.
    38. repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:3:p:427-427 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. You, Kefei & Solomon, Offiong Helen, 2015. "China's outward foreign direct investment and domestic investment: An industrial level analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 249-260.
    40. Teignier, Marc, 2018. "The role of trade in structural transformation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 45-65.
    41. Elena Podrecca & Gaetano Carmeci, 2001. "Fixed investment and economic growth: new results on causality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 177-182.
    42. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The causality between investment and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 157-163, January.
    43. Jiang, Mingrui & Luo, Sumei & Zhou, Guangyou, 2020. "Financial development, OFDI spillovers and upgrading of industrial structure," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu Liu & Yuxin Meng & Desheng Wu & Qiying Ran & Jianhong Cao & Zilian Liu, 2023. "Impact of haze pollution and human capital on economic resilience: evidence from prefecture-level cities in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 13429-13449, November.
    2. Yang, Honghua & Ma, Linwei & Li, Zheng, 2023. "Tracing China's steel use from steel flows in the production system to steel footprints in the consumption system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    3. Liu, Shaohui & Liu, Chuanjiang & Yang, Mian, 2021. "The effects of national environmental information disclosure program on the upgradation of regional industrial structure: Evidence from 286 prefecture-level cities in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 552-561.
    4. Lin, Boqiang & Zhou, Yicheng, 2021. "How does vertical fiscal imbalance affect the upgrading of industrial structure? Empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    5. Wen, Tianzuo & Qiang, Wei & Liu, Xingjian, 2022. "Exploring the geography of urban comprehensive development in mainland Chinese cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Weixue Lu & Hecheng Wu & Liwen Wang, 2023. "The optimal environmental regulation policy combination for high-quality economic development based on spatial Durbin and threshold regression models," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 7161-7187, July.
    7. Zhou, Kaile & Hu, Dingding & Li, Fangyi, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on private driving behavior: Evidence from electric vehicle charging data," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 164-178.
    8. Liao, Hua & Peng, Ying & Wang, Fang-Zhi & Zhang, Tong, 2022. "Understanding energy use growth: The role of investment-GDP ratio," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 15-24.
    9. Chao Zhou & Hongling Zheng & Shenwei Wan, 2023. "Industrial Structure, Employment Structure and Economic Growth—Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Hanxiao Wei & Huiqin Yao, 2022. "Environmental Regulation, Roundabout Production, and Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Ding Yongmei & Li Yulian, 2024. "Causal Linkage Effect on Chinese Industries via Partial Cross Mapping Under the Background of COVID-19," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1071-1094, March.
    12. Mari-Isabella Stan & Dragos-Florian Vintila, 2021. "An Investigation of the Structure of Fixed Assets of Construction Companies in the Context of Coastal Area Development," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 171-178, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hartwig, Jochen, 2012. "Testing the growth effects of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 11-24.
    2. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    3. Jens J. Krüger, 2008. "Productivity And Structural Change: A Review Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 330-363, April.
    4. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    5. Fedderke, Johannes W., 2018. "Exploring unbalanced growth: Understanding the sectoral structure of the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-189.
    6. Perez Sebastian,Fidel & Steinbuks,Jevgenijs & Feres,Jose Gustavo & Trotter,Ian Michael, 2020. "Electricity Access and Structural Transformation : Evidence from Brazil's Electrification," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9182, The World Bank.
    7. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    8. Jaime Alonso-Carrera & María Jesús Freire-Serén & Xavier Raurich, 2017. "Anatomizing the Mechanics of Structural Change," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2017/360, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. KUROSE, Kazuhiro, 2015. "The Structure of the Models of Structural Change and Kaldor's Facts: A Critical Survey," CCES Discussion Paper Series 59, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    10. Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Evolving comparative advantage, sectoral linkages, and structural change," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 75-87.
    11. Gray, Elie & Grimaud, André & Le Bris, David, 2018. "The Farmer, the Blue-collar, and the Monk: Understanding economic development through saturations of demands and non-homothetic productivity gains," TSE Working Papers 18-906, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Alessandro Nuvolari & Emanuele Russo, 2019. "Technical progress and structural change: a long-term view," LEM Papers Series 2019/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Jaime Alonso-Carrera & Giulia Felice & Xavier Raurich, 2018. "Inequality and Structural Change under Non-Linear Engels' Curve," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2018/374, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Afolabi Tunde Ahmed & Tsimisaraka Raymondo Sandra Marcelline & Sabi Couscous Mouhamadou Nazirou, 2021. "Empirical Study of the Impact of Governance on Economic Structural Change: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(8), pages 260-277.
    15. Andrés Maroto-Sanchez, 2010. "Growth and productivity in the service sector: The state of the art," Working Papers 07/10, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    16. Stijepic, Denis & Wagner, Helmut, 2008. "Impacts of Intermediate Trade on Structural Change," MPRA Paper 40841, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Aug 2012.
    17. Elie Gray & André Grimaud & David Le Bris, 2018. "The Farmer, the Blue-collar, and the Monk: Understanding Economic Development through Saturations of Demands and Non-Homothetic Productivity Gains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6970, CESifo.
    18. Ke Xu & Peiya Zhao, 2023. "Does Green Finance Promote Green Total Factor Productivity? Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-26, July.
    19. Dalila Nicet-Chenaf & Eric Rougier, 2009. "Human capital and structural change: how do they interact with each others in growth," Post-Print hal-00798441, HAL.
    20. Alonso-Carrera, Jaime & Raurich, Xavier, 2015. "Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 359-374.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:55:y:2020:i:c:p:222-231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.