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Long-run sectoral development: Time-series evidence for the German economy

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  • Dietrich, Andreas
  • Krüger, Jens J.

Abstract

In economic development, long-run structural change among the three main sectors of an economy follows a typical pattern with the primary sector (agriculture, mining) first dominating, followed by the secondary sector (manufacturing) and finally by the tertiary sector (services) in terms of employment and value added. We reconsider the verbal theoretical work of Fourastié and build a simple model encompassing its main features, most notably the macroeconomic influences on the sectoral development. Estimation and analysis with German data for the period 1850-2001 show that this model is quite capable of replicating the empirical facts.

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  • Dietrich, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J., 2010. "Long-run sectoral development: Time-series evidence for the German economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 111-122, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:111-122
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    1. Dietrich, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J., 2010. "Numerical explorations of the Ngai-Pissarides model of growth and structural change," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 199, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Andreas Dietrich, 2012. "Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 915-944, December.
    3. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2011. "The Impact of Mining and Services Industries on the Structural Change of Australia," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 4(2), pages 35-51, August.
    4. Nikolay Peykov, 2021. "Sectoral Output Gaps – Estimates for Bulgaria," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 5-26, March.
    5. Reza Farrahi Moghaddam & Fereydoun Farrahi Moghaddam & Mohamed Cheriet, 2014. "A Multi-Entity Input Output (MEIO) Approach to Sustainability - Water-Energy-GHG (WEG) Footprint Statements in Use Cases from Auto and Telco Industries," Papers 1404.6227, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change Industrialization Tertiarization;

    JEL classification:

    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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