IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/stapro/v142y2018icp39-43.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Granger causality between vectors of time series: A puzzling property

Author

Listed:
  • Triacca, Umberto

Abstract

Let us consider a discrete-time n-dimensional stochastic process z, with components x=(x1,…,xm1)′ and y=(y1,…,ym2)′, m1+m2=n. We want to study causality relationships between the variables in x andy. Suppose that we find that y Granger causes x. Then we would expect to be able to pick out at least one of these variables, say yj, having a causal impact on x. It turns out that, when we consider the conditioning information set defined by the past observations of x and all the yi, i≠j, it may be that yj has no causal impact on x, irrespective of the particular j=1,2,…,m2 that we tried to pick out. This is a puzzling property. The paper provides a condition under which this property cannot hold.

Suggested Citation

  • Triacca, Umberto, 2018. "Granger causality between vectors of time series: A puzzling property," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 39-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:142:y:2018:i:c:p:39-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2018.06.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167715218302323
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.spl.2018.06.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Renault, Eric & Triacca, Umberto, 2015. "Causality and separability," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-5.
    2. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    3. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    4. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2014. "Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 558-568.
    5. Eichler, Michael, 2007. "Granger causality and path diagrams for multivariate time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 334-353, April.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Triacca, Umberto, 1998. "Non-causality: The role of the omitted variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 317-320, September.
    8. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2019. "Testing subspace Granger causality," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 42-61.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Bouras, Christos & Christou, Christina & Hassapis, Christis, 2018. "Multi-horizon wealth effects across the G7 economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 165-176.
    3. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2014. "Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 558-568.
    4. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
    5. Jonathan B. Hill, 2005. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization up to Three Steps Ahead: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0503016, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2005.
    6. Khan, Urmee & Lieli, Robert P., 2018. "Information flow between prediction markets, polls and media: Evidence from the 2008 presidential primaries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 696-710.
    7. Bonato, Matteo & Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "Moments-based spillovers across gold and oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.
    9. Renault, Eric & Triacca, Umberto, 2015. "Causality and separability," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-5.
    10. Breitung, Jörg & Swanson, Norman Rasmus, 1998. "Temporal aggregation and causality in multiple time series models," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,27, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    11. Ralf Brüggemann & Christian Kascha, 2017. "Directed Graphs and Variable Selection in Large Vector Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-06, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    12. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2020. "Testing a large set of zero restrictions in regression models, with an application to mixed frequency Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 633-654.
    13. Karanfil, Fatih, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth revisited: Does the size of unrecorded economy matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3019-3025, August.
    14. Paraskevi Salamaliki & Ioannis Venetis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos, 2013. "The causal relationship between female labor supply and fertility in the USA: updated evidence via a time series multi-horizon approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 109-145, January.
    15. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "‘Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate: A comparative study of China and India’ — A failed replication (negative Type 1 and Type 2)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 150-160.
    16. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "(When) does money growth help to predict Euro-area inflation at low frequencies?," Discussion Papers 2013/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    17. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    18. Jen-Chi Cheng & Larry W. Taylor & Wenlong Weng, 2007. "Exchange rates and prices: revisiting Granger causality tests," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(2), pages 259-283, January.
    19. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou, 2017. "The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 661-689, October.
    20. Loperfido, Nicola, 2010. "A note on marginal and conditional independence," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(23-24), pages 1695-1699, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:142:y:2018:i:c:p:39-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/622892/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.