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Mortality consequences of the 1959-1961 Great Leap Forward famine in China: Debilitation, selection, and mortality crossovers

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  • Song, Shige

Abstract

Using retrospective mortality records for three cohorts of newborns (1956-1958, 1959-1961, and 1962-1964) drawn from a large Chinese national fertility survey conducted in 1988, this article examines cohort mortality differences up to age 22, with the aim of identifying debilitating and selection effects of the 1959-1961 Great Leap Forward Famine. The results showed that the mortality level of the non-famine cohort caught up to and exceeded the level of the famine cohort between ages 11 and 12, suggesting both debilitating and selection effects. Multilevel multiprocess models further established a more direct connection between frailties in infancy and frailties at subsequent ages, revealing the underlying dynamics of mortality convergence between the famine and the non-famine cohorts caused by differential excess infant mortality. These results provide important new insights into the human mortality process.

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  • Song, Shige, 2010. "Mortality consequences of the 1959-1961 Great Leap Forward famine in China: Debilitation, selection, and mortality crossovers," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 551-558, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:71:y:2010:i:3:p:551-558
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    3. Shige Song, 2013. "Prenatal malnutrition and subsequent foetal loss risk: Evidence from the 1959-1961 Chinese famine," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(26), pages 707-728.
    4. Elizabeth Gooch, 2018. "Resistance is Futile? Institutional and Geographic Factors in China’s Great Leap Famine," HiCN Working Papers 266, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Tan, Chih Ming & Tan, Zhibo & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2014. "Sins of the fathers: The intergenerational legacy of the 1959-1961 Great Chinese Famine on children's cognitive development:," IFPRI discussion papers 1351, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Lee, Wang-Sheng & Li, Ben G., 2021. "Extreme weather and mortality: Evidence from two millennia of Chinese elites," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Christopher J. Holmes & Anna Zajacova, 2014. "Education as “the Great Equalizer”: Health Benefits for Black and White Adults," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1064-1085, December.
    8. Xue Feng Hu & Gordon G. Liu & Maoyong Fan, 2017. "Long‐Term Effects of Famine on Chronic Diseases: Evidence from China's Great Leap Forward Famine," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 922-936, July.
    9. Li, Jinhu & Menon, Nidhiya, 2020. "Echo Effects of Early-Life Health Shocks: The Intergenerational Consequences of Prenatal Malnutrition during the Great Leap Forward Famine in China," IZA Discussion Papers 13171, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Zhongwei Zhao & Yuan Zhu & Anna Reimondos, 2013. "Could changes in reported sex ratios at birth during China's 1958-1961 famine support the adaptive sex ratio adjustment hypothesis?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(33), pages 885-906.
    11. Xu, Hongwei & Li, Lydia & Zhang, Zhenmei & Liu, Jinyu, 2016. "Is natural experiment a cure? Re-examining the long-term health effects of China's 1959–1961 famine," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 110-122.
    12. He, Ping & Luo, Yanan & Ding, Ruoxi & Zheng, Xiaoying, 2022. "Is it just a cure? Re-evaluating the effects of prenatal exposure to the Great Chinese Famine on the risk of infectious diseases in adulthood," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    13. Song, Shige, 2013. "Identifying the intergenerational effects of the 1959–1961 Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine on infant mortality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 474-487.
    14. Chih Ming Tan & Zhibo Tan & Xiaobo Zhang, 2014. "Sins of the Father: The Intergenerational Legacy of the 1959-61 Great Chinese Famine on Children's Cognitive Development," Working Paper series 08_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Wang-Sheng Lee & Ben G. Li, 2019. "Extreme Weather and Long-term Health: Evidence from Two Millennia of Chinese Elites," CEH Discussion Papers 09, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.

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