Regional trends in mental health inequalities in young people aged 16–25 in the UK and the role of cuts to local government expenditure: Repeated cross-sectional analysis using the British household panel Survey/UK household longitudinal survey

Young people's mental health globally has been in decline. Because of their low perceived need, young people's services tend to be the first cut when budgets are reduced. There is a lack of evidence on how a reduction in services and opportunities for young people is associated with their mental health. Additionally, how this may be magnified by place and the assets and challenges of place. The aim of this study is to explore trends in young people's mental health measured by GHQ-12 over time in the twelve regions of the UK. We estimated an interrupted time series model using 2010 as a break point from which there was a shift in government policy to a prolonged period of large reductions in central government funding. Repeated cross-sectional data on young people aged 16–25 is used from the British Household Panel Survey and its successor survey UK Household Longitudinal Survey. Results showed a statistically significant reduction in mental health for young people living in the North East, Wales, and the East of England. The North East was the region with the largest reduction in funding and saw the greatest reduction in young people's mental health. Next, we look at how reductions in local government expenditure related to services for children and young people: children's social services, education, transportation, and culture; explain the observed decline in mental health. We employ a Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition approach comparing young people's mental health between 2011 and 2017. Results show a marginally statistically significant decrease in young people's mental health over this time. Unobserved factors related to transport spending and children's social services explain some of this gap. Area level factors such as deprivation, infrastructure, and existing assets need to be considered when distributing funding for young people's services to avoid exacerbating regional inequalities in mental health.