Revisiting the relationship between economic uncertainty and suicide: An alternative approach

Previous research provides evidence that economic uncertainty is powerful enough to precipitate suicide. This study examines whether the relationship between economic uncertainty and suicide in the US is (i) context dependent and (ii) asymmetric. To answer these questions, we link US monthly total- age- and gender-specific suicide rates to the US Economic Policy Uncertainty index between 1999 and 2019, controlling for month fixed effects, year fixed effects and unemployment rates. We find that the relationship between economic uncertainty and the suicide rates of males in their mid-career (aged 25–54) and late career (aged 55–64) is context dependent. Our results show that absolute monthly changes in economic uncertainty have no effect on suicide rates of males aged 25–54 and 55–64, whereas when these changes are unexpected – departing from the economic uncertainty regime during which they occur – they precipitate the suicide of these age- and gender-specific groups. Additionally, our findings provide evidence of the presence of negativity bias in these relationships. We show that extreme unexpected increases in economic uncertainty induce suicide of males aged 25–54 and 55–64, while extreme unexpected decreases in economic uncertainty do not significantly decrease suicide rates of these age- and gender-specific groups. Females, with the exception of those aged 65 plus, are perceived to be predominantly insulated from changes in economic uncertainty. Our results suggest that females aged 65 plus are particularly affected by extreme unexpected increases in economic uncertainty, suggesting that the relationship for females aged 65 plus is context dependent and exhibits negativity bias.