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Geographic and demographic correlates of autism-related anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-15

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  • Tomeny, Theodore S.
  • Vargo, Christopher J.
  • El-Toukhy, Sherine

Abstract

This study examines temporal trends, geographic distribution, and demographic correlates of anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009–2015. A total of 549,972 tweets were downloaded and coded for the presence of anti-vaccine beliefs through a machine learning algorithm. Tweets with self-disclosed geographic information were resolved and United States Census data were collected for corresponding areas at the micropolitan/metropolitan level. Trends in number of anti-vaccine tweets were examined at the national and state levels over time. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to determine census variables that were correlated with anti-vaccination tweet volume. Fifty percent of our sample of 549,972 tweets collected between 2009 and 2015 contained anti-vaccine beliefs. Anti-vaccine tweet volume increased after vaccine-related news coverage. California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania had anti-vaccination tweet volume that deviated from the national average. Demographic characteristics explained 67% of variance in geographic clustering of anti-vaccine tweets, which were associated with a larger population and higher concentrations of women who recently gave birth, households with high income levels, men aged 40 to 44, and men with minimal college education. Monitoring anti-vaccination beliefs on Twitter can uncover vaccine-related concerns and misconceptions, serve as an indicator of shifts in public opinion, and equip pediatricians to refute anti-vaccine arguments. Real-time interventions are needed to counter anti-vaccination beliefs online. Identifying clusters of anti-vaccination beliefs can help public health professionals disseminate targeted/tailored interventions to geographic locations and demographic sectors of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomeny, Theodore S. & Vargo, Christopher J. & El-Toukhy, Sherine, 2017. "Geographic and demographic correlates of autism-related anti-vaccine beliefs on Twitter, 2009-15," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 168-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:191:y:2017:i:c:p:168-175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.08.041
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    1. Jiménez, Ángel V. & Stubbersfield, Joseph M. & Tehrani, Jamshid J., 2018. "An experimental investigation into the transmission of antivax attitudes using a fictional health controversy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 23-27.
    2. Luyten, Jeroen & Kessels, Roselinde & Atkins, Katherine E. & Jit, Mark & van Hoek, Albert Jan, 2019. "Quantifying the public's view on social value judgments in vaccine decision-making: A discrete choice experiment," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 181-193.
    3. Flaherty, Eoin & Sturm, Tristan & Farries, Elizabeth, 2022. "The conspiracy of Covid-19 and 5G: Spatial analysis fallacies in the age of data democratization," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).

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