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Do flexible alcohol trading hours reduce violence? A theory-based natural experiment in alcohol policy

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  • Humphreys, David K.
  • Eisner, Manuel P.

Abstract

Alcohol-related violence is a pressing public health concern. In 2005, the government of England and Wales took a controversial approach to preventing violence by removing restrictions on opening hours for alcohol outlets, thus increasing the availability of alcohol. The policy aimed to remove fixed closing times, which it claimed was contributing to urban violence occurring at peak closing times. It proposed to reduce violence and disorder by installing systems of ‘staggered closing times’. This policy was criticised for overlooking established public health principles prioritising the control of alcohol availability in the prevention of alcohol-related harm. In this study, we treated the removal of trading hour restrictions as a natural experiment to test competing theoretical principles about the relationship between alcohol availability and violence. Our study took place in the City of Manchester over a four-year period 2004–2008. Detailed trading records for over 600 alcohol outlets were obtained, as were police records for all violent incidents. We found considerable variation in the implementation of extended trading hours across the city, which affected area-level exposure of changes in alcohol availability and staggered closing times. To isolate the effect of these changes on violence, we performed a dose–response analysis to examine whether improved staggering of closing hours (or increased alcohol availability) was associated with decreases in violence. We found no evidence to support the government-proposed hypothesis that staggered closing reduces violence. We also found no support for the alternative hypothesis; that increase alcohol availability would result in increased violence. This study provides an example of how better evidence can be generated from natural experiments by placing added emphasis on theory, causal mechanisms and implementation science.

Suggested Citation

  • Humphreys, David K. & Eisner, Manuel P., 2014. "Do flexible alcohol trading hours reduce violence? A theory-based natural experiment in alcohol policy," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:102:y:2014:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2013.11.038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dobson, Douglas & Cook, Thomas J., 1980. "Avoiding type III error in program evaluation : Results from a field experiment," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 269-276, January.
    2. Duailibi, S. & Ponicki, W. & Grube, J. & Pinsky, I. & Laranjeira, R. & Raw, M., 2007. "The effect of restricting opening hours on alcohol-related violence," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 97(12), pages 2276-2280.
    3. Bonell, Chris & Fletcher, Adam & Morton, Matthew & Lorenc, Theo & Moore, Laurence, 2012. "Realist randomised controlled trials: A new approach to evaluating complex public health interventions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 75(12), pages 2299-2306.
    4. David K Humphreys & Manuel P Eisner & Douglas J Wiebe, 2013. "Evaluating the Impact of Flexible Alcohol Trading Hours on Violence: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-9, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lauren Tyler-Harwood & Andrea K. Menclova, 2020. "Alcohol Availability and Alcohol-Related Harm: Exploring the Relationship between Local Alcohol Policies and Crime in New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/02, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Phil Hadfield & Fiona Measham, 2015. "The outsourcing of control: Alcohol law enforcement, private-sector governance and the evening and night-time economy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(3), pages 517-537, February.
    3. Ejrnæs, Anders & Scherg, Rune H., 2022. "Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2014. "The Effect Of Closing Hour Restrictions On Alcohol Use And Abuse In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 63/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2021. "The effect of alcohol sales restrictions on alcohol poisoning mortality: Evidence from Russia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1417-1442, June.

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