IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v88y2023ics003801212300099x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An analysis of natural disasters’ effects – A global comparative study of ‘Blessing in Disguise’

Author

Listed:
  • Kourtit, Karima
  • Nijkamp, Peter
  • Banica, Alexandru

Abstract

This paper addresses the intriguing issue of whether natural disasters do not only generate negative impacts on society, but, in the long run – under favourable and effective policy and behavioural responses – also positive outcomes. This challenging and novel resilience question is formulated here as the ‘Blessing in Disguise’ hypothesis. There is quite some speculation in the literature on possible long-term and systemic effects of disasters, but there is little empirical evidence supported by solid quantitative analysis on expected positive outcomes. The challenging aim of the present study – to examine under what conditions natural hazards may lead to positive socio-economic outcomes in the long run (‘Blessing in Disguise’) – is empirically addressed from a resilience perspective. It integrates in one quantitative research framework (the ‘Pentagon model’), a Stimulus-Response approach and a Capability-Theory inspired framing of territorial opportunities in coping with natural disasters, and uses a mix of statistical and econometric analyses, such as multiple linear regression analysis, cluster analysis, and a Stimulus-Response adjusted Difference-in-Difference model. Our findings, based on a global comparative study, show that a ‘Blessing in Disguise’ scenario is frequently a valid proposition that may manifest itself differently in different geographic, social-economic, political and institutional contexts. Although there is not a single pattern of development specific in all cases, it is clear that positive recovery trends can be observed both at the state level, and also at the regional level. The analysed data show regularly incremental changes after recent natural disasters (especially in the long term) at country level, but more thorough positive changes can be identified at the regional scale. In conclusion, the management of disasters requires proper response capacities and appears to create a window of opportunity for improved capabilities, but it is only a conditional possibility that may be transformed into a sustainable form of new development.

Suggested Citation

  • Kourtit, Karima & Nijkamp, Peter & Banica, Alexandru, 2023. "An analysis of natural disasters’ effects – A global comparative study of ‘Blessing in Disguise’," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s003801212300099x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101599
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003801212300099X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101599?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joost Santos & Christian Yip & Shital Thekdi & Sheree Pagsuyoin, 2020. "Workforce/Population, Economy, Infrastructure, Geography, Hierarchy, and Time (WEIGHT): Reflections on the Plural Dimensions of Disaster Resilience," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(1), pages 43-67, January.
    2. N. N. Taleb & R. Douady, 2013. "Mathematical definition, mapping, and detection of (anti)fragility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 1677-1689, November.
    3. Rita De Siano & Valerio Leone Sciabolazza & Alessandro Sapio, 2020. "Regional Resilience to Climate and Environmental Shocks," SpringerBriefs in Regional Science, Springer, number 978-3-030-54588-8, July.
    4. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp, 2019. "Vulnerability, Resilience and Exposure: Methodological Aspects," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 295-324, Springer.
    5. Berlemann, Michael & Steinhardt, Max F. & Tutt, Jascha, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," IZA Discussion Papers 9026, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Alexandru Bănică & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp, 2020. "Natural disasters as a development opportunity: a spatial economic resilience interpretation," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 40(2), pages 223-249, October.
    7. Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2004. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2177-2186.
    8. Takasaki, Yoshito, 2017. "Do Natural Disasters Decrease the Gender Gap in Schooling?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-89.
    9. Dev Nathan, 2017. "Analyzing and Measuring Vulnerability: An Approach with Special Reference to Mountain Areas," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 11(1), pages 37-55, April.
    10. J. Birkmann & P. Buckle & J. Jaeger & M. Pelling & N. Setiadi & M. Garschagen & N. Fernando & J. Kropp, 2010. "Extreme events and disasters: a window of opportunity for change? Analysis of organizational, institutional and political changes, formal and informal responses after mega-disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(3), pages 637-655, December.
    11. Mechler, Reinhard, 2009. "Disasters and economic welfare : can national savings help explain post-disaster changes in consumption ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4988, The World Bank.
    12. Angelo Jonas Imperiale & Frank Vanclay, 2021. "Conceptualizing community resilience and the social dimensions of risk to overcome barriers to disaster risk reduction and sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 891-905, September.
    13. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2019. "Advantages of the Regional and Sectoral Disaggregation of a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Economic Impact Analysis of Natural Disasters," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 327-358, Springer.
    14. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Natural disaster situations and growth: A macroeconomic model for sudden disaster impacts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(9), pages 1417-1434, September.
    15. Hideki Toya & Mark Skidmore, 2014. "Do Natural Disasters Enhance Societal Trust?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 255-279, May.
    16. Ethan J. Raker, 2020. "Natural Hazards, Disasters, and Demographic Change: The Case of Severe Tornadoes in the United States, 1980–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 653-674, April.
    17. Esteban, Miguel & Portugal-Pereira, Joana, 2014. "Post-disaster resilience of a 100% renewable energy system in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 756-764.
    18. Colleen Murphy & Paolo Gardoni, 2010. "Assessing capability instead of achieved functionings in risk analysis," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-147, March.
    19. Joost R. Santos & Krista Danielle S. Yu & Sheree Ann T. Pagsuyoin & Raymond R. Tan, 2014. "Time-Varying Disaster Recovery Model For Interdependent Economic Systems Using Hybrid Input--Output And Event Tree Analysis," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 60-80, March.
    20. Abdulquadri Ade Bilau & Emlyn Witt & Irene Lill, 2018. "Practice Framework for the Management of Post-Disaster Housing Reconstruction Programmes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-26, October.
    21. Peter Nijkamp, 2008. "Xxq Factors For Sustainable Urban Development: A Systems Economics View," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, June.
    22. Douglas Paton & Petra Buergelt, 2019. "Risk, Transformation and Adaptation: Ideas for Reframing Approaches to Disaster Risk Reduction," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-19, July.
    23. Sheree Pagsuyoin & Joost Santos & Gustavo Salcedo & Christian Yip, 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Drought Risk Analysis Using GIS-Based Input Output Modeling," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Adam Rose (ed.), Advances in Spatial and Economic Modeling of Disaster Impacts, chapter 0, pages 375-397, Springer.
    24. Peter Nijkamp & Gerard Pepping, 1998. "A Meta-analytical Evaluation of Sustainable City Initiatives," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(9), pages 1481-1500, August.
    25. Nijkamp, Peter & Yim, Hoyan, 2001. "Critical success factors for offshore airports — a comparative evaluation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 181-188.
    26. Eduardo Rodriguez-Oreggia & Alejandro De La Fuente & Rodolfo De La Torre & Hector A. Moreno, 2013. "Natural Disasters, Human Development and Poverty at the Municipal Level in Mexico," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(3), pages 442-455, March.
    27. Nicholas A Phelps & Andrew M Wood & David C Valler, 2010. "A Postsuburban World? An Outline of a Research Agenda," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 42(2), pages 366-383, February.
    28. Frank Thomalla & Michael Boyland & Karlee Johnson & Jonathan Ensor & Heidi Tuhkanen & Åsa Gerger Swartling & Guoyi Han & John Forrester & Darin Wahl, 2018. "Transforming Development and Disaster Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12, May.
    29. Aliye Ahu Akgün & Eveline van Leeuwen & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "Analytical Support Tools For Sustainable Futures," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 5(2), pages 1-24, DECEMBER.
    30. Ian Koetsier, 2017. "Natural disasters and (future) government debt," Chapters, in: Brigitte Unger & Daan van der Linde & Michael Getzner (ed.), Public or Private Goods?, chapter 4, pages 48-74, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    31. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2007. "Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 115-124.
    32. Rehdanz, Katrin & Welsch, Heinz & Narita, Daiju & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2015. "Well-being effects of a major natural disaster: The case of Fukushima," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 500-517.
    33. Marin, Giovanni & Modica, Marco & Paleari, Susanna & Zoboli, Roberto, 2021. "Assessing disaster risk by integrating natural and socio-economic dimensions: A decision-support tool," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey," Working Papers 200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    2. Alexandru Bănică & Karima Kourtit & Peter Nijkamp, 2020. "Natural disasters as a development opportunity: a spatial economic resilience interpretation," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 40(2), pages 223-249, October.
    3. Akgun, A.A. & Leeuwen, E.S. van & Nijkamp, P., 2011. "A systemic perspective on multi-stakeholder sustainable development strategies," Serie Research Memoranda 0009, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. Sheree A Pagsuyoin & Joost R Santos, 2021. "Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(5), pages 1058-1074, June.
    5. Deni Kusumawardani & Yessi Rahmawati & Mokhamad Nur Cahyadi & Meifal Rusli & Ana Martina, 2023. "An analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the 2021 mountain Semeru Eruption on household level using PLS-SEM," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Sweta Sen & Narayan Chandra Nayak & William Kumar Mohanty, 2023. "Impact of tropical cyclones on sustainable development through loops and cycles: evidence from select developing countries of Asia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2467-2498, November.
    7. Aliye Ahu Akgün & Eveline van Leeuwen & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "The Usefulness Of Analytical Tools For Sustainable Futures," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1575, European Regional Science Association.
    8. Lorenzo Carrera & Gabriele Standardi & Francesco Bosello & Jaroslav Mysiak, 2014. "Assessing Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts of a Flood Event Through the Integration of Spatial and Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Working Papers 2014.82, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    9. Akgun, A.A. & Baycan, T. & Nijkamp, P., 2011. "Repositioning rural areas as promising future hot spots," Serie Research Memoranda 0013, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Gualtieri, Giovanni & Nicolini, Marcella & Sabatini, Fabio, 2019. "Repeated shocks and preferences for redistribution," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 53-71.
    11. Fekete, Alexander & Fuchs, Sven & Garschagen, Matthias & Hutter, Gérard & Klepp, Silja & Lüder, Catharina & Neise, Thomas & Sett, Dominic & von Elverfeldt, Kirsten & Wannewitz, Mia, 2022. "Adjustment or transformation? Disaster risk intervention examples from Austria, Indonesia, Kiribati and South Africa," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Ercio Muñoz S. & Alfredo Pistelli M., 2010. "¿Tienen los Terremotos un Impacto Inflacionario en el Corto Plazo? Evidencia para una Muestra de Países," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 113-127, April.
    13. Saskia Sassen & Karima Kourtit, 2021. "A Post-Corona Perspective for Smart Cities: ‘ Should I Stay or Should I Go ?’," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-16, September.
    14. J. A. León & M. Ordaz & E. Haddad & I. F. Araújo, 2022. "Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Eric Nazindigouba Kere & Somlanaré Romuald Kinda & Rasmané Ouedraogo, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Hurt Tax Resource Mobilization?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01242968, HAL.
    16. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    17. Giovanni Gualtieri & Marcella Nicolini & Fabio Sabatini & Luca Zamparelli, 2019. "Repeated Shocks and Preferences for Redistribution," Working Papers 2018.15, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Bourdeau-Brien, Michael & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2017. "The impact of natural disasters on the stock returns and volatilities of local firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 259-270.
    19. Tam B. Vu & Ilan Noy, 2018. "Natural Disasters and Firms in Vietnam," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 426-452, August.
    20. Paudel, Jayash & Ryu, Hanbyul, 2018. "Natural disasters and human capital: The case of Nepal’s earthquake," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-12.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:88:y:2023:i:c:s003801212300099x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.