IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v87y2023ipbs0038012123000496.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting and explaining absenteeism risk in hospital patients before and during COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Borges, Ana
  • Carvalho, Mariana
  • Maia, Miguel
  • Guimarães, Miguel
  • Carneiro, Davide

Abstract

In order to address one of the most challenging problems in hospital management – patients’ absenteeism without prior notice – this study analyses the risk factors associated with this event. To this end, through real data from a hospital located in the North of Portugal, a prediction model previously validated in the literature is used to infer absenteeism risk factors, and an explainable model is proposed, based on a modified CART algorithm. The latter intends to generate a human-interpretable explanation for patient absenteeism, and its implementation is described in detail. Furthermore, given the significant impact, the COVID-19 pandemic had on hospital management, a comparison between patients’ profiles upon absenteeism before and during the COVID-19 pandemic situation is performed. Results obtained differ between hospital specialities and time periods meaning that patient profiles on absenteeism change during pandemic periods and within specialities.

Suggested Citation

  • Borges, Ana & Carvalho, Mariana & Maia, Miguel & Guimarães, Miguel & Carneiro, Davide, 2023. "Predicting and explaining absenteeism risk in hospital patients before and during COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:87:y:2023:i:pb:s0038012123000496
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101549
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012123000496
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101549?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henriques, C.O. & Gouveia, M.C., 2022. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the efficiency of Portuguese state-owned enterprise hospitals," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Gavurova, Beata & Kelemen, Miroslav & Polishchuk, Volodymyr, 2022. "Expert model of risk assessment for the selected components of smart city concept: From safe time to pandemics as COVID-19," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    3. Lerman, Robert I. & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1984. "A note on the calculation and interpretation of the Gini index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 363-368.
    4. Wei Pan, 2001. "Akaike's Information Criterion in Generalized Estimating Equations," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(1), pages 120-125, March.
    5. Gilgur, Alexander & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel, 2022. "Modeling mobility, risk, and pandemic severity during the first year of COVID," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Kazim Topuz & Hasmet Uner & Asil Oztekin & Mehmet Bayram Yildirim, 2018. "Predicting pediatric clinic no-shows: a decision analytic framework using elastic net and Bayesian belief network," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 263(1), pages 479-499, April.
    7. Jorge Varanda & Luzia Gonçalves & Isabel Craveiro, 2020. "The Unlikely Saviour: Portugal’s National Health System and the Initial Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 63(2), pages 291-297, December.
    8. Yetkin Özbük, Raife Meltem & Coşkun, Ayşen & Filimonau, Viachaslau, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on food management in households of an emerging economy," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeon, Jeonghwan & Suvitha, Krishnan & Arshad, Noreen Izza & Kalaiselvan, Samayan & Narayanamoorthy, Samayan & Ferrara, Massimiliano & Ahmadian, Ali, 2023. "A probabilistic hesitant fuzzy MCDM approach to evaluate India’s intervention strategies against the COVID-19 pandemic," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quentin Wodon, 2000. "Microdeterminants of consumption, poverty, growth, and inequality in Bangladesh," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(10), pages 1337-1352.
    2. Wei Pan, 2001. "Model Selection in Estimating Equations," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 529-534, June.
    3. José Lorenzo, 2002. "E-Index for measuring concentration," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(4), pages 357-361, November.
    4. Nantian Huang & Hua Peng & Guowei Cai & Jikai Chen, 2016. "Power Quality Disturbances Feature Selection and Recognition Using Optimal Multi-Resolution Fast S-Transform and CART Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Michael S. Rendall & Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar & Margaret M. Weden & Zafar Nazarov, 2011. "Multiple Imputation for Combined-Survey Estimation With Incomplete Regressors In One But Not Both Surveys," Working Papers WR-887-1, RAND Corporation.
    6. Katrina N. Burns & Kan Sun & Julius N. Fobil & Richard L. Neitzel, 2016. "Heart Rate, Stress, and Occupational Noise Exposure among Electronic Waste Recycling Workers," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Song Guo & Feng Ling & Juan Hou & Jinna Wang & Guiming Fu & Zhenyu Gong, 2014. "Mosquito Surveillance Revealed Lagged Effects of Mosquito Abundance on Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission: A Retrospective Study in Zhejiang, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-8, November.
    8. Bénédicte H. Apouey & Jacques Silber, 2016. "Performance and Inequality in Health: A Comparison of Child and Maternal Health across Asia," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Inequality after the 20th Century: Papers from the Sixth ECINEQ Meeting, volume 24, pages 181-214, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    9. Masato Okamoto, 2009. "Decomposition of gini and multivariate gini indices," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 7(2), pages 153-177, June.
    10. Laura Neumeyer & Anna Gründler & Anna-Luisa Stöber, 2023. "Don’t Worry, Be Happy—Does the CEO’s Personality Mitigate the Negative Effect of Financial Constraints on Employee Satisfaction?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 71-98, March.
    11. Adam Wagstaff & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2004. "Overall versus socioeconomic health inequality: a measurement framework and two empirical illustrations," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 297-301, March.
    12. Adam Wagstaff & Eddy Van Doorslaer, 1994. "Measuring inequalities in health in the presence of multiple‐category morbidity indicators," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 281-291, July.
    13. Quentin T. Wodon, 1999. "Between Group Inequality And Targeted Transfers," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(1), pages 21-39, March.
    14. Yoel Finkel & Yevgeny Artsev & Shlomo Yitzhaki, 2006. "Inequality measurement and the time structure of household income in Israel," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 4(2), pages 153-179, August.
    15. Schechtman, E. & Yitzhaki, S., 1999. "On the proper bounds of the Gini correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 133-138, May.
    16. Li, Gaorong & Lian, Heng & Feng, Sanying & Zhu, Lixing, 2013. "Automatic variable selection for longitudinal generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 174-186.
    17. Branko Milanovic & Shlomo Yitzhak, 2006. "Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does The World Have A Middle Class?," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 2(2), pages 88-110.
    18. Mark Rooij, 2018. "Transitional modeling of experimental longitudinal data with missing values," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 12(1), pages 107-130, March.
    19. Pamučar, Dragan & Durán-Romero, Gemma & Yazdani, Morteza & López, Ana M., 2023. "A decision analysis model for smart mobility system development under circular economy approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Yves Tillé, 2016. "The legacy of Corrado Gini in survey sampling and inequality theory," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 74(2), pages 167-176, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:87:y:2023:i:pb:s0038012123000496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.