IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v84y2022ics0038012122001616.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 induced lockdown effect on wheat supply chain and prices in India – Insights from state interventions led resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Cariappa, AG Adeeth
  • Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar
  • Adhav, Chaitanya Ashok
  • R, Sendhil
  • Ramasundaram, P.
  • Kumar, Anuj
  • Singh, Satyavir
  • Singh, Gyanendra Pratap

Abstract

COVID-19 incidence in India, impacted the food market, wheat in particular, as the crop harvest coincided with the lockdown disrupting the supply chain and prices posing a few researchable issues - the lockdown effect on wheat supply chain; how the state intervention bolstered the sector to restore; the insights the government interventions offer, etc. The study, using the interrupted time series analysis, investigated the disruption in wheat supply chain, and captured the impact of lockdown on wheat prices. Despite relaxation allowed to agricultural-related activities, lack of transport and labour shortage were reported. Nevertheless, the country registered a record wheat procurement of 38.99 million tonnes. Though the prices spiked post-lockdown, there was no evidence of structural-break and persisting volatility. The findings affirm that supply chain disruption is the main driver for the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in restoration of the wheat economy. The relief measures, infrastructure and its efficient usage, and easing restrictions rendered resilience to wheat supply chain against the COVID-19 shocks. The experience of coordinated efforts of the state machinery and the cooperative farm communities offers confidence about the national capacities to manage disasters of even greater scale in agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Cariappa, AG Adeeth & Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar & Adhav, Chaitanya Ashok & R, Sendhil & Ramasundaram, P. & Kumar, Anuj & Singh, Satyavir & Singh, Gyanendra Pratap, 2022. "COVID-19 induced lockdown effect on wheat supply chain and prices in India – Insights from state interventions led resilience," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:84:y:2022:i:c:s0038012122001616
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2022.101366
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012122001616
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101366?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cuddy, John D A & Della Valle, P A, 1978. "Measuring the Instability of Time Series Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 40(1), pages 79-85, February.
    2. B. James Deaton & Brady J. Deaton, 2020. "Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID‐19," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 68(2), pages 143-149, June.
    3. Varshney, Deepak & Kumar, Anjani & Mishra, Ashok K. & Rashid, Shahidur & Joshi, Pramod K., 2021. "India's COVID-19 social assistance package and its impact on the agriculture sector," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Cumby, Robert E & Huizinga, John, 1992. "Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 185-195, January.
    5. Hillary C. Ezeaku & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Covid-19 and Cacophony of coughing: Did International commodity Prices catch influenza?," Working Papers 20/040, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    6. Christopher F Baum, 2005. "Stata: The language of choice for time-series analysis?," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(1), pages 46-63, March.
    7. Narayanan, Sudha & Saha, Shree, 2020. "Urban food markets and the COVID-19 lockdown in India," SocArXiv fdgky, Center for Open Science.
    8. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    9. Dev, S. Mahendra, 2020. "Addressing COVID-19 impacts on agriculture, food security, and livelihoods in India," IFPRI book chapters, in: COVID-19 and global food security, chapter 7, pages 33-35, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    11. Christian Elleby & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Marcel Adenauer & Giampiero Genovese, 2020. "Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1067-1079, August.
    12. Gandhi, Vasant P. & Koshy, Abraham, 2006. "Wheat Marketing and its Efficiency in India," IIMA Working Papers WP2006-09-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    13. Alok Baveja & Ajai Kapoor & Benjamin Melamed, 2020. "Stopping Covid-19: A pandemic-management service value chain approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 289(2), pages 173-184, June.
    14. Sendhil, R. & Kar, Amit & Mathur, V.C. & Jha, Girish K., 2013. "Price Discovery, Transmission and Volatility: Evidence from Agricultural Commodity Futures," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(1), June.
    15. Tang, Ou & Nurmaya Musa, S., 2011. "Identifying risk issues and research advancements in supply chain risk management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 25-34, September.
    16. Kum Fai Yuen & Xueqin Wang & Fei Ma & Kevin X. Li, 2020. "The Psychological Causes of Panic Buying Following a Health Crisis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-14, May.
    17. repec:eme:jadeep:jadee-09-2020-0194 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Chiaramonti, David & Maniatis, Kyriakos, 2020. "Security of supply, strategic storage and Covid19: Which lessons learnt for renewable and recycled carbon fuels, and their future role in decarbonizing transport?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    19. Sudha Narayanan & Shree Saha, 2020. "Urban food markets and the lockdown in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2020-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lazebnik, Teddy & Shami, Labib & Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky, Svetlana, 2023. "Intervention policy influence on the effect of epidemiological crisis on industry-level production through input–output networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cariappa, AG Adeeth & Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar & Adhav, Chaitanya Ashok & Sendhil, R. & Ramasundaram, P., 2022. "COVID-19 induced lockdown effects on agricultural commodity prices and consumer behaviour in India – Implications for food loss and waste management," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PA).
    2. Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Kaisar, Shahriar & Moktadir, Md. Abdul, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic related supply chain studies: A systematic review," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Paul, Ananna & Shukla, Nagesh & Trianni, Andrea, 2023. "Modelling supply chain sustainability challenges in the food processing sector amid the COVID-19 outbreak," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    4. Sendhil, R. & Ramasundaram, P., 2014. "Performance and Relevance of Wheat Futures Market in India – An Exploratory Analysis," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 174839, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Ardekani, Zahra Fozouni & Sobhani, Seyed Mohammad Javad & Barbosa, Marcelo Werneck & de Sousa, Paulo Renato, 2023. "Transition to a sustainable food supply chain during disruptions: A study on the Brazilian food companies in the Covid-19 era," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    6. Ramadas Sendhil & Kashish Arora & Sunny Kumar & Priyanka Lal & Arnab Roy & Ramalingam Jayakumara Varadan & Sivasankar Vedi & Anandan Pouchepparadjou, 2023. "Price Dynamics and Integration in India’s Staple Food Commodities—Evidence from Wholesale and Retail Rice and Wheat Markets," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Pasura Aungkulanon & Walailak Atthirawong & Pongchanun Luangpaiboon & Wirachchaya Chanpuypetch, 2024. "Navigating Supply Chain Resilience: A Hybrid Approach to Agri-Food Supplier Selection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-42, May.
    8. Gheorghe Cristian Popescu & Monica Popescu, 2022. "COVID-19 pandemic and agriculture in Romania: effects on agricultural systems, compliance with restrictions and relations with authorities," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(2), pages 557-567, April.
    9. Wan, Xiaoli & Yan, Yuruo & Zeng, Zhixiong, 2020. "Exchange rate regimes and market integration: evidence from the dynamic relations between renminbi onshore and offshore markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    10. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    11. Paul, Sanjoy Kumar & Chowdhury, Priyabrata & Moktadir, Md. Abdul & Lau, Kwok Hung, 2021. "Supply chain recovery challenges in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 316-329.
    12. Paulo Mourao & Alexandre Junqueira, 2021. "Through the Irregular Paths of Inequality: An Analysis of the Evolution of Socioeconomic Inequality in Brazilian States Since 1976," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, February.
    13. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Rahul Kapoor, 2013. "Persistence of Integration in the Face of Specialization: How Firms Navigated the Winds of Disintegration and Shaped the Architecture of the Semiconductor Industry," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 1195-1213, August.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    16. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2018. "Modelling volatility spillovers for bio-ethanol, sugarcane and corn spot and futures prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1002-1018.
    17. Adjognon, Guigonan Serge & Bloem, Jeffrey R. & Sanoh, Aly, 2021. "The coronavirus pandemic and food security: Evidence from Mali," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Hecq, Alain, 1995. "Unit root tests with level shift in the presence of GARCH," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 125-130, August.
    19. Adjognon,Guigonan Serge & Bloem,Jeffrey R. & Sanoh,Aly, 2020. "The Coronavirus Pandemic and Food Security : Evidence from West Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9474, The World Bank.
    20. Yi-Ting Chen, 2008. "A unified approach to standardized-residuals-based correlation tests for GARCH-type models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 111-133.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Retail price; Wholesale price; Market disruption; Interrupted time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:84:y:2022:i:c:s0038012122001616. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.