IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v47y2013i4p292-308.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Property value impacts of foreclosed housing acquisitions under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Johnson, Michael P.
  • Solak, Senay
  • Drew, Rachel Bogardus
  • Keisler, Jeffrey

Abstract

Community development corporations seek to stabilize neighborhoods affected by the recent foreclosure crisis through acquisition and redevelopment of distressed properties. One rationale for this work is the alleviation or avoidance of negative foreclosure impacts. We estimate the lost value to proximate properties associated with a single foreclosure through a Markov chain representing probabilistic transitions between foreclosure stages. We apply our model to a case study of foreclosure properties in Chelsea, MA. A rank ordering by estimated property value impacts indicates significant potential gains in social value as compared to current community development practice. We extend our basic model to address the effects of clusters of foreclosed units upon the value of proximate properties. This study provides additional support for the use of decision modeling in foreclosed housing acquisition and redevelopment.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Michael P. & Solak, Senay & Drew, Rachel Bogardus & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2013. "Property value impacts of foreclosed housing acquisitions under uncertainty," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 292-308.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:47:y:2013:i:4:p:292-308
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2013.07.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012113000372
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2013.07.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai-yan Lee, 2008. "Foreclosure's price-depressing spillover effects on local properties: a literature review," Public and Community Affairs Discussion Papers 2008-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. S L Lee & C W R Ward, 2001. "Persistence of UK real estate returns: A Markov chain analysis," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(3), pages 279-291, January.
    3. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2012. "Nonprofit housing investment and local area home values," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 67-96.
    4. Kristopher Gerardi & Eric Rosenblatt & Paul S. Willen & Vincent W. Yao, 2012. "Foreclosure externalities: some new evidence," Public Policy Discussion Paper 12-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Zhenguo Lin & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2009. "Spillover Effects of Foreclosures on Neighborhood Property Values," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 387-407, May.
    6. Stephen Malpezzi, "undated". "Hedonic Pricing Models: A Selective and Applied Review," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 02-05, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
    7. Tammy Leonard & James Murdoch, 2009. "The neighborhood effects of foreclosure," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 317-332, December.
    8. Ingrid Gould Ellen & Ioan Voicu, 2006. "Nonprofit housing and neighborhood spillovers," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 31-52.
    9. Thomas J. Fitzpatrick & Stephan D. Whitaker, 2012. "The impact of vacant, tax-delinquent, and foreclosed property on sales prices of neighboring homes," Working Papers (Old Series) 1123, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Paul Zipkin, 1993. "Mortgages and Markov Chains: A Simplified Evaluation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(6), pages 683-691, June.
    11. William H. Rogers & William Winter, 2009. "The Impact of Foreclosures on Neighboring Housing Sales," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(4), pages 455-480.
    12. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    13. Guasch, J. Luis & Marshall, Robert C., 1985. "An analysis of vacancy patterns in the rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 208-229, March.
    14. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    15. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    16. Schuetz, Jenny & Been, Vicki & Ellen, Ingrid Gould, 2008. "Neighborhood effects of concentrated mortgage foreclosures," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 306-319, December.
    17. Harding, John P. & Rosenblatt, Eric & Yao, Vincent W., 2009. "The contagion effect of foreclosed properties," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 164-178, November.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    19. Mingche M. Li & H. James Brown, 1980. "Micro-Neighborhood Externalities and Hedonic Housing Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(2), pages 125-141.
    20. Scott D. Grimshaw & William P. Alexander, 2011. "Markov chain models for delinquency: Transition matrix estimation and forecasting," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 267-279, May.
    21. Robert W. Wassmer, 2011. "The recent pervasive external effects of residential home foreclosure," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 247-265, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Senay Solak & Armagan Bayram & Mehmet Gumus & Yueran Zhuo, 2019. "Technical Note—Optimizing Foreclosed Housing Acquisitions in Societal Response to Foreclosures," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(4), pages 950-964, July.
    2. Bayram, Armagan & Solak, Senay & Johnson, Michael, 2014. "Stochastic models for strategic resource allocation in nonprofit foreclosed housing acquisitions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 246-262.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chan, Sewin & Gedal, Michael & Been, Vicki & Haughwout, Andrew, 2013. "The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 100-118.
    2. Weiran Huang & Ashlyn Nelson & Stephen L. Ross, 2018. "Foreclosure Spillovers within Broad Neighborhoods," Working Papers 2018-096, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    3. Gerardi, Kristopher & Rosenblatt, Eric & Willen, Paul S. & Yao, Vincent, 2015. "Foreclosure externalities: New evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 42-56.
    4. Tammy Leonard & Nikhil Jha & Lei Zhang, 2017. "Neighborhood price externalities of foreclosure rehabilitation: an examination of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 955-975, May.
    5. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & Vincent W. Yao, 2016. "Sales of Distressed Residential Property: What Have We Learned from Recent Research?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 98(3), pages 159-188.
    6. Youngme Seo & Michael Craw, 2017. "Is something better than nothing? The impact of foreclosed and lease-purchase properties on residential property values," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(16), pages 3681-3699, December.
    7. Zhang, Lei & Leonard, Tammy, 2014. "Neighborhood impact of foreclosure: A quantile regression approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 133-143.
    8. Timothy Jones & Dean Gatzlaff & G. Stacy Sirmans, 2016. "Housing Market Dynamics: Disequilibrium, Mortgage Default, and Reverse Mortgages," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 269-281, October.
    9. Jennifer Lewis Buell & Kimberly Burnett & Larry Buron & Alvaro Cortes & Michael DiDomenico & Anna Jefferson & Christian Redfearn & Jenny Schuetz & Jonathan Spader & Stephen Whitlow, 2015. "Which Way to Recovery? Housing Market Outcomes and the Neighborhood Stabilization Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. W. Scott Frame, 2010. "Estimating the effect of mortgage foreclosures on nearby property values: a critical review of the literature," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 95(3).
    11. Whitaker, Stephan & Fitzpatrick IV, Thomas J., 2013. "Deconstructing distressed-property spillovers: The effects of vacant, tax-delinquent, and foreclosed properties in housing submarkets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 79-91.
    12. Cheung, Ron & Cunningham, Chris & Meltzer, Rachel, 2014. "Do homeowners associations mitigate or aggravate negative spillovers from neighboring homeowner distress?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 75-88.
    13. Sadayuki, Taisuke, 2018. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites: An application to housing rent and public transportation in Tokyo, Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 155-173.
    14. John P. Harding & Jing Li & Stuart S. Rosenthal & Xirui Zhang, 2022. "Forced moves and home maintenance: The amplifying effects of mortgage payment burden on underwater homeowners," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 498-533, June.
    15. Alm, James & Hawley, Zackary & Lee, Jin Man & Miller, Joshua J., 2016. "Property tax delinquency and its spillover effects on nearby properties," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-77.
    16. Ying Huang & Ronald W. Spahr & Mark A. Sunderman, 2020. "The Impact of Default and Foreclosure on Housing Values: Rings Vs. Neighborhoods Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 338-374, April.
    17. Kenneth P. Brevoort & Cheryl R. Cooper, 2013. "Foreclosure's Wake: The Credit Experiences of Individuals Following Foreclosure," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 41(4), pages 747-792, December.
    18. Hartley, Daniel, 2014. "The effect of foreclosures on nearby housing prices: Supply or dis-amenity?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 108-117.
    19. Kashian, Russell & Cebula, Richard & Cramer, Eric, 2014. "Foreclosures in an Exurb: Multiple Empirical Analyses through a Prism," MPRA Paper 55557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Xian F. Bak & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2019. "The heterogeneous spatial impact of foreclosures on nearby property values," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(3), pages 439-466, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:47:y:2013:i:4:p:292-308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.