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Risk contagion of COVID-19 in Japanese firms: A network approach

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  • Kanno, Masayasu

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is one of the worst pandemics in human history. Our research objective is to assess the contagion effect on Japanese firms and to evaluate the Japanese government's COVID-19 measures during the period from April 7, 2020, to May 25, 2020. We propose a susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for COVID-19 and derive COVID-19 parameters for Japan. Subsequently, we analyze the effect of COVID-19 on Japanese firms through correlation-based network and credit risk analyses. The main findings are that the Tokyo Stock Price Index moved in the opposite direction of COVID-19 parameters and COVID-19 parameters are almost the only risk factors that impact a firm's credit risk during the period. Finally, we find that the interconnection analysis between the COVID-19 infection network and the financial networks contribute to the existing pandemic risk management knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanno, Masayasu, 2021. "Risk contagion of COVID-19 in Japanese firms: A network approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921001124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101491
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kanno, Masayasu, 2015. "The network structure and systemic risk in the Japanese interbank market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 102-112.
    2. Kanno, Masayasu, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk using interbank exposures in the global banking system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 105-130.
    3. Kanno, Masayasu, 2021. "Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on major industries in Japan: A dynamic conditional correlation approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Masayasu Kanno, 2015. "Macro stress test for credit risk," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(5), pages 554-574, November.
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    7. Caldarelli, Guido, 2013. "Scale-Free Networks: Complex Webs in Nature and Technology," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199665174.
    8. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Leoni, Patrick L., 2013. "Pandemics of the poor and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4574-4583.
    9. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    10. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2020. "Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Contreras, Sebastián & Biron-Lattes, Juan Pablo & Villavicencio, H. Andrés & Medina-Ortiz, David & Llanovarced-Kawles, Nyna & Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro, 2020. "Statistically-based methodology for revealing real contagion trends and correcting delay-induced errors in the assessment of COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Demir, Ender & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "Banking sector reactions to COVID-19: The role of bank-specific factors and government policy responses," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Ahmad, Wasim & Kutan, Ali M. & Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur & Kattumuri, Ruth, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and firm-level dynamics in the USA, UK, Europe, and Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Mbatha, Vusisizwe Moses & Alovokpinhou, Sedjro Aaron, 2022. "The structure of the South African stock market network during COVID-19 hard lockdown," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 590(C).
    4. Xuelian Li & Shiu-Chieh Chiu & Jyh-Horng Lin & Yuxin Xie, 2024. "Assessing insurer guarantee cover and risk retention toward SDG 3: a structure-break down-and-out call valuation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Kanno, Masayasu, 2024. "Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Risk contagion; Susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) model; Correlation-based network; Stock market; Net cash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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