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The fair value of a token: How do markets price cryptocurrencies?

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  • Nadler, Philip
  • Guo, Yike

Abstract

With the rise of cryptocurrency tokens as a new asset class, the question of the fair evaluation of a cryptocurrency token has become a question of increasing importance. We estimate the pricing kernel with which users price factors affecting their token holdings. We investigate how traditional risk factors such as market risk are evaluated, as well as how blockchain specific risk factors are priced in. In order to do so, we introduce an asset pricing model and modify its properties to make it applicable to cryptocurrency markets. We group the risk factors into market related and Bitcoin- and Ethereum blockchain specific risk factors. We find that blockchain specific risk factors are priced in. There is evidence that risk factors have moved from Bitcoin to Ethereum specific risk factors with an increasing importance of market factors, providing evidence for a decoupling of on-chain and off-chain trading activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadler, Philip & Guo, Yike, 2020. "The fair value of a token: How do markets price cryptocurrencies?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s0275531919300601
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101108
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Jinghua & Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2020. "Does Bitcoin still own the dominant power? An intraday analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "A systematic review of the bubble dynamics of cryptocurrency prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Şoiman, Florentina & Dumas, Jean-Guillaume & Jimenez-Garces, Sonia, 2023. "What drives DeFi market returns?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Saggu, Aman & Ante, Lennart & Demir, Ender, 2024. "Anticipatory gains and event-driven losses in blockchain-based fan tokens: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    5. Patel, Ritesh & Migliavacca, Milena & Oriani, Marco E., 2022. "Blockchain in banking and finance: A bibliometric review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Sun, Xiaotong & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Sermpinis, Georgios, 2024. "Decentralization illusion in Decentralized Finance: Evidence from tokenized voting in MakerDAO polls," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Jean-Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garces & Florentina Șoiman, 2021. "Risk analyses of the crypto-market: A literature review," Post-Print hal-03112920, HAL.
    8. Dulani Jayasuriya Daluwathumullagamage & Alexandra Sims, 2021. "Fantastic Beasts: Blockchain Based Banking," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-43, April.
    9. Gill-de-Albornoz, Belén & Lafuente, Juan A. & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordoñez, Javier, 2024. "Bitcoin attention and economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Jean-Guillaume Dumas & Sonia Jimenez-Garcès & Florentina Șoiman, 2021. "Blockchain technology and crypto-assets market analysis: vulnerabilities and risk assessment," Working Papers hal-03112920, HAL.
    11. Kamilla Marchewka-Bartkowiak & Karolina Anna Nowak & Michał Litwiński, 2022. "Digital valuation of personality using personal tokens," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 32(3), pages 1555-1576, September.
    12. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Cryptocurrencies; Asset pricing; Risk factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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