Endogenous green technology progress, green transition and carbon emissions

Green technological progress is crucial to sustainable development and the achievement of the “dual carbon” goal. However, the impact of green technological advances on carbon emissions differs. Furthermore, most studies on green technology progress have been based on static analyses and regard green technology progress as an exogenous factor and neglect its endogenisation and spillover. In order to study the theoretical mechanisms by which green technological advances affect the low-carbon transition as well as carbon emissions. Based on the theory of technological endogenisation and industrial upgrading, this paper proposes a theoretical analysis framework for the relationship between endogenised green technological progress, the degree of green transformation, and carbon emissions. Based on the benchmark model, this section predicts China's carbon emissions. And compared the impact of green technology on carbon emission trajectory under “no policy” and “implemented policy".The results show that: 1) In the early stage of economic growth, the green transition is in a steady state; when economic growth reaches a certain level, the level of green technology is endogenous to the economic growth and continues to improve, which promotes the green transition, the reduction of carbon emissions; 2)Due to the scale effect, carbon emissions increase as the economy grows; however, when economic growth reaches a certain level, carbon emissions first increase with the growth of the economy and then decrease, showing an inverted “U” trend, which is attributed to the emission reduction and green transition effects of green technology; 3)As can be seen from the prediction results. After carbon peaks, green technology advances play a dominant role in carbon emissions, contributing to a rapid reduction in carbon emissions. In addition, carbon emissions peak earlier after policy interventions.