Carry trades, agent heterogeneity and the exchange rate
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2019.07.001
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013.
"Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
- Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 1717, CESifo.
- Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 367, Society for Computational Economics.
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014.
"Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 3, pages 71-117,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2004. "Exchange Rate Puzzles: A Tale of Switching Attractors," Working Paper Series 163, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-153, March.
- Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Christopher Malikane & Christian Proaño, 2015.
"A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 669-691, April.
- Peter Flaschel & Florian Hartmann & Chris Malikane & Christian R. Proaño, 2014. "A Behavioral Macroeconomic Model of Exchange Rate Fluctuations with Complex Market Expectations Formation," IEER Working Papers 98, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University, revised 29 Jan 2014.
- Zhou, Su & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Does the forward premium anomaly depend on the sample period used or on the sign of the premium?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-25.
- H. Dewachter & R. Houssa & M. Lyrio & P. R. Kaltwasser, 2011. "Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Review of Business and Economic Literature, Intersentia, vol. 0(4), pages 454-472, December.
- Suzuki, Masataka, 2016. "A representative agent asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and recursive utility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 298-315.
- Kozhan, Roman & Salmon, Mark, 2009. "Uncertainty aversion in a heterogeneous agent model of foreign exchange rate formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1106-1122, May.
- Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
- Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2016. "Dodging the steamroller: Fundamentals versus the carry trade," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-131.
- Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2007.
"Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 111-128, September.
- Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working papers 9506, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, W.A., 1995. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016.
"Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
- Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2014. "Heterogeneous Agents, the Financial Crisis and Exchange Rate Predictability," Economics Working Paper Series 1436, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Oct 2015.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010.
"Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series 1561, CESifo.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Hommes, Cars H. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021.
"Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 747-769.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Cars H. Hommes & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2017. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Working Paper 2017/12, Norges Bank.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "Hetergeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Working papers 9621, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 409-430, November.
- H. Dewachter & R. Houssa & M. Lyrio & P.R. Kaltwasser, 2011.
"Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
Review of Business and Economic Literature, Intersentia, vol. 56(4), pages 454-472, December.
- Dewachter, Hans & Houssa, Romain & Lyrio, Marco & Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2011. "Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Insper Working Papers wpe_260, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working papers 9506, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79,
Springer.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014.
"Heterogeneity of Agents, Transactions Costs and the Exchange Rate,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 2, pages 33-70,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, August.
- Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
- Filip Stanek & Jiri Kukacka, 2018.
"The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market,"
Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 865-892, April.
- Jiri Kukacka & Filip Stanek, 2015. "The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market," Working Papers IES 2015/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2015.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
- Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Li, Xiaoping & Wang, Nan & Duan, Jihong & Shi, Wenming, 2024. "Exchange rate stability and expectation management under heterogeneous expectations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
- Xiaoping Li & Chunyang Zhou, 2024. "Tobin Tax, Carry Trade, and the Exchange Rate Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 1627-1647, April.
- Li, XiaoPing & Tong, Bin & Zhou, ChunYang, 2020. "Uncertainty aversion, carry trades and agent heterogeneity in the FX market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Qian Zhang & Kuo-Jui Wu & Ming-Lang Tseng, 2019. "Exploring Carry Trade and Exchange Rate toward Sustainable Financial Resources: An application of the Artificial Intelligence UKF Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
- Zhang, Qian & Li, Zeguang, 2021. "Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"
Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79,
Springer.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor, 2017. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset price dynamics: a survey of recent evidence," Working Paper 2017/22, Norges Bank.
- Goldbaum, David & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "An empirical examination of heterogeneity and switching in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 667-684.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013.
"Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
- Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 1717, CESifo.
- Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 367, Society for Computational Economics.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Dynamic expectation formation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-97.
- Li, XiaoPing & Tong, Bin & Zhou, ChunYang, 2020. "Uncertainty aversion, carry trades and agent heterogeneity in the FX market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Hommes, Cars H. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021.
"Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 747-769.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Cars H. Hommes & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2017. "Comparing behavioural heterogeneity across asset classes," Working Paper 2017/12, Norges Bank.
- Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017.
"Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
- Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2016. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," FinMaP-Working Papers 63, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
- de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009.
"The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
- de Zwart, G.J. & Markwat, T.D. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-096-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014.
"Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations in Asset Pricing: Empirical Evidence from the S&P500," Research Paper Series 344, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2022. "A State-Space Approach for Time-Series Prediction of an Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_20.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Imane El Ouadghiri & Remzi Uctum, 2020.
"Macroeconomic expectations and time varying heterogeneity:evidence from individual survey data,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(23), pages 2443-2459, May.
- Imane El Ouadghiri & Remzi Uctum, 2020. "Macroeconomic expectations and time varying heterogeneity: Evidence from individual survey data," Post-Print hal-03319091, HAL.
- Willem F.C. Verschoor & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Do foreign exchange fund managers behave like heterogeneous agents?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1125-1134, February.
- Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani-Rad & Jean-Philippe Weisskopf, 2019. "Behavioural heterogeneity in wine investments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(30), pages 3236-3255, June.
- H. Dewachter & R. Houssa & M. Lyrio & P.R. Kaltwasser, 2011.
"Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
Review of Business and Economic Literature, Intersentia, vol. 56(4), pages 454-472, December.
- Dewachter, Hans & Houssa, Romain & Lyrio, Marco & Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2011. "Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Insper Working Papers wpe_260, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
- Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013.
"Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
- Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2012. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-026, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Christian D. Dick & Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CESifo Working Paper Series 4181, CESifo.
- Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
- Ya-Chi Huang & Chueh-Yung Tsao, 2018. "Discovering Traders’ Heterogeneous Behavior in High-Frequency Financial Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 821-846, April.
- Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
More about this item
Keywords
Carry trade; Heterogeneous agent; Fundamental equilibria; Unscented kalman filter (UKF); Interest rate differential;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:64:y:2019:i:c:p:343-358. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.