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Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule: Evidence from OECD countries

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  • Heimonen, Kari
  • Junttila, Juha
  • Kärkkäinen, Samu

Abstract

We analyze the effects of stock market and exchange rate information in a forward-looking Taylor rule for monthly data from 14 OECD countries during the years 1999–2016. Especially the stock market information in the form of dividend but also the currency market information in the form of real exchange rate are revealed to be relevant in Taylor rule for many of the countries examined by helping to strengthen the role of inflation and real economic activity deviations in the policy rule. In many cases the rule also seems to be opportunistic, i.e., the inflation target has been time-varying.

Suggested Citation

  • Heimonen, Kari & Junttila, Juha & Kärkkäinen, Samu, 2017. "Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:1-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2017.05.001
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    2. Chen, Zhenxi & Lien, Donald & Lin, Yaheng, 2021. "Sentiment: The bridge between financial markets and macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1177-1190.
    3. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    4. Ogunsanya, Ibukun & Wasiu Adamson, Temitope, 2024. "Exchange Rate Movement And Stock Returns In Most Capitalised Economies In Sub-Saharan Africa," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 11(1), pages 18-37, June.
    5. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2020. "Monetary Policy Rule and Taylor Principle in Emerging ASEAN Economies: GMM and DSGE Approaches," MPRA Paper 100847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Donato Masciandaro, 2023. "How Elastic and Predictable Money Should Be: Flexible Monetary Policy Rules from the Great Moderation to the New Normal Times (1993-2023)," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23196, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    7. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ghafoor, Abdul & Hussain Khan, Habib & Qureshi, Zeeshan, 2019. "Dynamics of mutual funds and stock markets in Asian developing economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Nguyen, Quynh, 2023. "Daily monetary policy reactions to the pandemic: The Australian case," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 24-32.
    9. Gaukhar Niyetalina & Elmira Balapanova & Almas Kuralbayev & Gulnar Lukhmanova & Artur Bolganbayev, 2023. "The Relationship of Energy Generation from Fossil Fuels, Low Carbon Resources, and Renewable Resources and Inflation within the Framework of Taylor s Rule: The Case of Kazakhstan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 9-15, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Stock market; Currency market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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