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Land supply and money growth in China

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  • Liu, Taoxiong
  • Huang, Mengdan

Abstract

China has experienced several episodes of inflation in recent years. Popular arguments attribute these episodes to relatively high growth rates of money, which were then primarily explained by China's accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and the undervaluation of RMB. We attempt to explain China's high monetary growth rates through the supply of land. Under China's land system, the supply of land is controlled by the government and can be viewed as exogenous to the monetary system. An increase in the money supply stimulates bank loans and thereby monetary growth. Both an error correction model and a simultaneous equations model are developed to explore the effect of the land supply on monetary growth. The empirical results show that the effect of the land supply on the money supply is significantly positive and even exceeds that of foreign exchange reserves. The significance for monetary policy is that, under China's existing political economy, both the central bank and local governments should be responsible for monetary policy and price levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Taoxiong & Huang, Mengdan, 2016. "Land supply and money growth in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 327-338.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:42:y:2016:i:c:p:327-338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.10.006
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    1. Du, Hongyan & Ma, Yongkai & An, Yunbi, 2011. "The impact of land policy on the relation between housing and land prices: Evidence from China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 19-27, February.
    2. Louis-Philippe Rochon, 2001. "Cambridge's Contribution to Endogenous Money: Robinson and Kahn on credit and money," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 287-307.
    3. World Bank, 2005. "China Land Policy Reform for Sustainable Economic and Social Development : An Integrated Framework for Action," World Bank Publications - Reports 8254, The World Bank Group.
    4. Zatul Badarudin & Ahmed Khalid & Mohamed Ariff, 2009. "Money supply behaviour in emerging economies: a comparative analysis," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 331-350.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Changlin Luo, 2019. "The Transition of Local Government Financing Platforms in China: Risks, Incentives, and Regulations," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 221-245, May.
    3. Can Li & Yu Meng & Yingkui Li & Jingfeng Ge & Chaoran Zhao, 2019. "Inter-Metropolitan Land-Price Characteristics and Patterns in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-29, August.
    4. Changlin Luo, 2023. "Monopolized Land Supply and Excessive Leverage of Local Governments in China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 24(2), pages 309-328, November.
    5. Dong, Yilin, 2016. "A note on geographical constraints and housing markets in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 15-21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land supply; Money supply; Foreign exchange reserves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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