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Survey sentiment and interest rate option smile

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  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan
  • Kuo, I-Doun

Abstract

This paper finds that the presence of interest rate smile can be fully explained neither by the model misspecification nor by the buying pressure. First, volatility smile obtained from alternative interest rate models is not flat and interest rate smile significantly relates to survey sentiment after controlling for fundamental and liquidity variables. Second, a dynamic relation between sentiment proxies and interest rate smiles meets the limit to arbitrage hypothesis, which is the focal point of market friction. Third, the relation between survey sentiment proxies and option smiles is more pronounced during the crisis period than the pre-crisis and post-crisis period. While investor sentiment drives the smile curve, interest rate models cannot fully capture the smile since these models are formulated in a frictionless environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun, 2015. "Survey sentiment and interest rate option smile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 125-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:125-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2014.11.018
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    1. Tang, Zhenpeng & Lin, Qiaofeng & Cai, Yi & Chen, Kaijie & Liu, Dinggao, 2024. "Harnessing the power of real-time forum opinion: Unveiling its impact on stock market dynamics using intraday high-frequency data in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey sentiment; Option smile; Eurodollar options markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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