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Projections of the costs of light-duty battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles (2020–2040) and related economic issues

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  • Burke, Andrew F.
  • Zhao, Jingyuan
  • Fulton, Lewis M.

Abstract

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the initial costs and total cost of ownership (TCO) for light-duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) from 2020 to 2040, covering cars, SUVs, and light trucks, alongside the infrastructure requirements. Key findings indicate that by 2040, the initial costs for BEVs will align with those of gasoline vehicles if battery costs can reach cell-level $70/kWh (or pack-level $84/kWh). For FCVs, achieving cost parity with gasoline cars before 2040 will be challenging unless the cost of fuel cells decreases to about $40/kW through high-volume production (>500000 units). Regarding 5-year TCOs, both BEVs and FCVs are expected to be close to or slightly lower than those of gasoline vehicles by 2040 across all LDV market segments. Investment analysis for large fleets suggests that by 2040, public fast charging for BEVs could cost $2000/vehicle, and hydrogen refueling for FCVs $1100/vehicle. Additionally, the study assesses the impact of low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits on the profitability of refueling stations, concluding that these credits are essential for transforming potentially unprofitable stations into profitable ventures with returns of 5% or higher. This highlights the critical role of LCFS in financing BEVs and FCVs infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Burke, Andrew F. & Zhao, Jingyuan & Fulton, Lewis M., 2024. "Projections of the costs of light-duty battery-electric and fuel cell vehicles (2020–2040) and related economic issues," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:105:y:2024:i:c:s0739885924000350
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2024.101440
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Burke, Andrew, 2022. "Assessment of Requirements, Costs, and Benefits of Providing Charging Facilities for Battery-Electric Heavy-Duty Trucks at Safety Roadside Rest Areas," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3c07s2jh, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Hsieh, I-Yun Lisa & Pan, Menghsuan Sam & Chiang, Yet-Ming & Green, William H., 2019. "Learning only buys you so much: Practical limits on battery price reduction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 218-224.
    3. Xaviery N. Penisa & Michael T. Castro & Jethro Daniel A. Pascasio & Eugene A. Esparcia & Oliver Schmidt & Joey D. Ocon, 2020. "Projecting the Price of Lithium-Ion NMC Battery Packs Using a Multifactor Learning Curve Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-18, October.
    4. Zhao, Hengbing & Burke, Andrew, 2015. "Modelling and Analysis of Plug-in Series-Parallel Hybrid Medium-Duty Vehicles," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt37z105pr, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    5. Burke, Andrew & Fulton, Lewis, 2022. "Use Of Liquid Hydrogen in Heavy-Duty Vehicle Applications: Station And Vehicle Technology and Cost Considerations," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt22z8260f, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Zachary P. Cano & Dustin Banham & Siyu Ye & Andreas Hintennach & Jun Lu & Michael Fowler & Zhongwei Chen, 2018. "Batteries and fuel cells for emerging electric vehicle markets," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 279-289, April.
    7. Mauler, Lukas & Duffner, Fabian & Leker, Jens, 2021. "Economies of scale in battery cell manufacturing: The impact of material and process innovations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
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    9. Burke, Andrew & Zhao, Jingyuan & Miller, Marshall & Fulton, Lewis, 2023. "Vehicle Choice Modeling for Light-, Medium-, and Heavy-Duty Zero-Emission Vehicles in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt7437p058, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    10. Björn Nykvist & Måns Nilsson, 2015. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 329-332, April.
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