IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v8y2004i4p335-363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas-fired electricity contracts

Author

Listed:
  • Wiser, Ryan
  • Bachrach, Devra
  • Bolinger, Mark
  • Golove, William

Abstract

Electricity policymakers, industry participants, analysts, and even consumers have become acutely aware of the ever-present risks that face the delivery of electricity. Recent instability in the electricity industry illustrates the need for thoughtful resource planning to balance the cost, reliability, and risk of electricity supply. This article evaluates the relative risk profiles of renewable and natural gas generating plants. It does so by analyzing how six different risks are allocated and, if possible, mitigated in long-term power purchase contracts, taking as a contract sample 27 agreements signed by the California Department of Water Resources in 2001. This assessment illustrates some of the significant differences between the risk profiles of natural gas-fired and renewable generation. Renewable energy contracts are shown to provide the most value relative to natural gas-fired contracts by mitigating fuel price and environmental compliance risks. Gas-fired electricity contracts typically provide better protection against short-term demand risk. When it comes to fuel supply, performance, and regulatory risks, the relative value of renewable and gas-fired contracts is ambiguous. We conclude that a better understanding of risks and risk allocation practices will help utilities, regulators, and others make more objective decisions in the future when selecting between renewable and gas-fired electricity supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiser, Ryan & Bachrach, Devra & Bolinger, Mark & Golove, William, 2004. "Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas-fired electricity contracts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 335-363, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:8:y:2004:i:4:p:335-363
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364-0321(03)00136-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Repetto, R. & Henderson, J., 2003. "Environmental exposures in the US electric utility industry," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 103-111, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier, 2010. "Electricity generation cost in isolated system: The complementarities of natural gas and renewables in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2808-2818, December.
    2. Roques, Fabien A. & Newbery, David M. & Nuttall, William J., 2008. "Fuel mix diversification incentives in liberalized electricity markets: A Mean-Variance Portfolio theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1831-1849, July.
    3. Guerrero-Lemus, Ricardo & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A., 2012. "Costs for conventional and renewable fuels and electricity in the worldwide transport sector: A mean–variance portfolio approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 178-188.
    4. Perez, Yannick & Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier, 2009. "The public promotion of wind energy in Spain from the transaction costs perspective 1986-2007," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 1058-1066, June.
    5. Fabien A. Roques, 2011. "Long-term Contracts and Technology Choices in Electricity Markets," Chapters, in: Jean-Michel Glachant & Dominique Finon & Adrien de Hauteclocque (ed.), Competition, Contracts and Electricity Markets, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    7. Losekann, Luciano & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco J. & de Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes, 2013. "Efficient power generating portfolio in Brazil: Conciliating cost, emissions and risk," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 301-314.
    8. Salehizadeh, Mohammad Reza & Soltaniyan, Salman, 2016. "Application of fuzzy Q-learning for electricity market modeling by considering renewable power penetration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1172-1181.
    9. Sen Guo & Wenyue Zhang & Xiao Gao, 2020. "Business Risk Evaluation of Electricity Retail Company in China Using a Hybrid MCDM Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Fagiani, Riccardo & Barquín, Julián & Hakvoort, Rudi, 2013. "Risk-based assessment of the cost-efficiency and the effectivity of renewable energy support schemes: Certificate markets versus feed-in tariffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 648-661.
    11. Gustavo A. Marrero & Luis A. Puch & Francisco Javier Ramos-Real, 2010. "Riesgo y costes medios en la generación de electricidad: diversificación e implicaciones de política energética," Economic Reports 13-2010, FEDEA.
    12. Roques, Fabien A., 2008. "Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets: The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-253, December.
    13. Hauteclocque, Adrien de & Glachant, Jean-Michel, 2009. "Long-term energy supply contracts in European competition policy: Fuzzy not crazy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5399-5407, December.
    14. Dong-Hyun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & In-Hyeo Jung & Douglas Alleman, 2019. "The Efficacy of the Tolling Model’s Ability to Improve Project Profitability on International Steel Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2008. "Factors influencing the likelihood of regulatory changes in renewable electricity policies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 141-161, January.
    16. Barbose, Galen & Wiser, Ryan & Phadke, Amol & Goldman, Charles, 2008. "Managing carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning: Current practices in the Western United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3300-3311, September.
    17. Gross, Robert & Blyth, William & Heptonstall, Philip, 2010. "Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: Why policy needs to look beyond costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 796-804, July.
    18. Dornan, Matthew & Jotzo, Frank, 2015. "Renewable technologies and risk mitigation in small island developing states: Fiji’s electricity sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-48.
    19. Briest, Gordon & Lauven, Lars-Peter & Kupfer, Stefan & Lukas, Elmar, 2022. "Leaving well-worn paths: Reversal of the investment-uncertainty relationship and flexible biogas plant operation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1162-1176.
    20. LaBelle, Michael, 2012. "Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 390-403.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georg Weinhofer & Volker H. Hoffmann, 2010. "Mitigating climate change – how do corporate strategies differ?," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 77-89, February.
    2. Ayman Hassan Bazhair & Saleh F. A. Khatib & Hamzeh Al Amosh, 2022. "Taking Stock of Carbon Disclosure Research While Looking to the Future: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Busch, Timo & Weinhofer, Georg & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2011. "The carbon performance of the 100 largest US electricity producers," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 95-103, June.
    4. Barbose, Galen & Wiser, Ryan & Phadke, Amol & Goldman, Charles, 2008. "Managing carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning: Current practices in the Western United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3300-3311, September.
    5. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Golove, William, 2006. "Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 706-720, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:8:y:2004:i:4:p:335-363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.