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Assessment of national greenhouse gas mitigation targets for 2030 through meta-analysis of bottom-up energy and emission scenarios: A case of Japan

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  • Kuramochi, Takeshi
  • Wakiyama, Takako
  • Kuriyama, Akihisa

Abstract

This study conducted a comparative assessment and a meta-analysis of 48 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction scenarios based on bottom-up energy system analyses for 2030 reported in seven studies published between 2011 and 2015 to obtain insights into the ambition level of Japan's official mitigation target for 2030. First, the scenarios were categorised into four mitigation effort levels and assessed the GHG emissions range (excluding land use, land use change and forestry: LULUCF) as well as key underlying energy-related indicators for each effort level category. Second, a multiple regression equation was derived and applied to project GHG emissions with selected energy-related explanatory variables. Using the derived regression equation, we calculated the levels of low-carbon energy supply and end-use energy savings required to achieve different levels of GHG mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuramochi, Takeshi & Wakiyama, Takako & Kuriyama, Akihisa, 2017. "Assessment of national greenhouse gas mitigation targets for 2030 through meta-analysis of bottom-up energy and emission scenarios: A case of Japan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 924-944.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:924-944
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.12.093
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyu Luo & Cong Ma & Jian Ge, 2020. "Evaluation Model and Strategy for Selecting Carbon Reduction Technology for Campus Buildings in Primary and Middle Schools in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric, 2021. "The impact of electricity market reform and subnational climate policy on carbon dioxide emissions across the United States: A path analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Silva, Felipe L.C. & Souza, Reinaldo C. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando L. & Lourenco, Plutarcho M. & Calili, Rodrigo F., 2018. "A bottom-up methodology for long term electricity consumption forecasting of an industrial sector - Application to pulp and paper sector in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1107-1118.
    4. Kuriyama, Akihisa & Tamura, Kentaro & Kuramochi, Takeshi, 2019. "Can Japan enhance its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets? Assessment of economic and energy-related assumptions in Japan's NDC," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 328-340.

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