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Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model

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  • Buongiorno, Joseph
  • Raunikar, Ronald
  • Zhu, Shushuai

Abstract

The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was applied to project the consequences for the global forest sector of doubling the rate of growth of bioenergy demand relative to a base scenario, other drivers being maintained constant. The results showed that this would lead to the convergence of the price of fuelwood and industrial roundwood, raising the price of industrial roundwood by nearly 30% in 2030. The price of sawnwood and panels would be 15% higher. The price of paper would be 3% higher. Concurrently, the demand for all manufactured wood products would be lower in all countries, but the production would rise in countries with competitive advantage. The global value added in wood processing industries would be 1% lower in 2030. The forest stock would be 2% lower for the world and 4% lower for Asia. These effects varied substantially by country.

Suggested Citation

  • Buongiorno, Joseph & Raunikar, Ronald & Zhu, Shushuai, 2011. "Consequences of increasing bioenergy demand on wood and forests: An application of the Global Forest Products Model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 214-229, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:foreco:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:214-229
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brad Stennes & Kurt Niquidet & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2009. "Implications of Expanding Bioenergy Production from Wood in British Columbia: An Application of a Regional Wood Fibre Allocation Model," Working Papers 2009-02, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
    2. Ryan M. Bright & Anders Hammer Strømman & Troy R. Hawkins, 2010. "Environmental Assessment of Wood‐Based Biofuel Production and Consumption Scenarios in Norway," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 14(3), pages 422-439, June.
    3. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855.
    4. Sohngen, Brent & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1998. "Valuing the Impact of Large-Scale Ecological Change in a Market: The Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Timber," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 686-710, September.
    5. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241.
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