Multiscale coupled development and linkage response evaluation of China's carbon neutrality and sustainable development capability–A quantitative analysis perspective

The carbon neutrality is closely related to ecological environment quality and sustainable development. But the coupling mechanism between the carbon neutral capacity (CNC) and the sustainable development capacity (SDC) is currently unclear. In this research, we innovatively proposed a quantified carbon neutral capacity model (QCNCM) based on net ecosystem productivity to assess regional CNC, and established a framework for quantifying the relationship between CNC and SDC by integrating the gravity model, coupled coordination degree model, Moran's index and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Meanwhile, the synergistic development trend and coupling mechanism between CNC and SDC of China were explored. The results show that (1) China's CNC high-value zones are mainly located in the northeast and southwest, while SDC high-value zones are mainly located in the more developed cities, most of which are located in the southeast coastal region. (2) The coupled coordination degree between CNC and SDC is at a high level, indicating a high correlation between the two and a trend of coordinated development. (3) The sustainable development goals have significant spatial-temporal responses to CNC, and also exhibit differentiation in regional heterogeneity analysis. By establishing a quantitative relationship framework between CNC and SDC for the first time, this study provides a deep insight into the synergistic development process of sustainable development goals and carbon neutrality target, which is of great significance to the study of the spatial-temporal coupling and synergistic development of CNC and SDC in China.