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Machine learning for occupant-behavior-sensitive cooling energy consumption prediction in office buildings

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  • Amasyali, Kadir
  • El-Gohary, Nora

Abstract

Building energy consumption prediction plays a key role in energy-efficiency decision making. With the advancement in data analytics, a number of machine learning-based building energy consumption prediction models have been developed in recent years. However, existing prediction models do not sufficiently take occupant behavior into account. Towards addressing this gap, this paper presents a machine-learning approach for predicting building energy consumption in an occupant-behavior-sensitive manner. In this approach, a model learns from a large set of energy-use cases that were modelled and simulated in EnergyPlus. The machine-learning prediction model was trained using a large dataset that includes 3-month hourly data for 5760 energy-use cases representing different combinations of building characteristics, outdoor weather conditions, and occupant behaviors. In developing the model, four machine-learning algorithms were tested and compared in terms of their prediction accuracy and computational efficiency: classification and regression trees (CART), ensemble bagging trees (EBT), artificial neural networks (ANN), and deep neural networks (DNN). The simulation results demonstrated the high impact of the variables considered in this study. For example, the highest energy-consuming case consumed over 3432 times more energy than the lowest-consuming case. Occupant behavior made a difference up to over 7 times in energy consumption. The DNN model with four hidden layers achieved 2.97% coefficient of variation (CV). Such high performance shows the potential of the proposed approach. The approach could help better understand the impact of occupant behavior on building energy consumption and identify opportunities for behavioral energy-saving measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora, 2021. "Machine learning for occupant-behavior-sensitive cooling energy consumption prediction in office buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:142:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121000113
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.110714
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Xu, Xiaoxiao & Yu, Hao & Sun, Qiuwen & Tam, Vivian W.Y., 2023. "A critical review of occupant energy consumption behavior in buildings: How we got here, where we are, and where we are headed," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Gao, Zhikun & Yang, Siyuan & Yu, Junqi & Zhao, Anjun, 2024. "Hybrid forecasting model of building cooling load based on combined neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    4. Yan, Biao & Yang, Wansheng & He, Fuquan & Zeng, Wenhao, 2023. "Occupant behavior impact in buildings and the artificial intelligence-based techniques and data-driven approach solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    5. Yue, Naihua & Caini, Mauro & Li, Lingling & Zhao, Yang & Li, Yu, 2023. "A comparison of six metamodeling techniques applied to multi building performance vectors prediction on gymnasiums under multiple climate conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    6. Zhang, Chengyu & Luo, Zhiwen & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Enhancing building energy consumption prediction introducing novel occupant behavior models with sparrow search optimization and attention mechanisms: A case study for forty-five buildings in a univer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    7. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    8. Kapp, Sean & Choi, Jun-Ki & Hong, Taehoon, 2023. "Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    9. Huang, He & Wang, Honglei & Hu, Yu-Jie & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Xiaolin, 2022. "Optimal plan for energy conservation and CO2 emissions reduction of public buildings considering users' behavior: Case of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    10. Amini Toosi, Hashem & Del Pero, Claudio & Leonforte, Fabrizio & Lavagna, Monica & Aste, Niccolò, 2023. "Machine learning for performance prediction in smart buildings: Photovoltaic self-consumption and life cycle cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

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