IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v118y2020ics1364032119307385.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gasoline and diesel demand in the EU: Implications for the 2030 emission goal

Author

Listed:
  • Aklilu, Abenezer Zeleke

Abstract

Methodologically consistent demand estimates are necessary to analyze and forecast the effect of a common fuel policy across the EU-28. This study estimates short-run and long-run price and income elasticities for gasoline and diesel demands using the ARDL Bounds approach that also tests the existence of a long-run relationship using data from 1978 to 2013. The results show that elasticity estimates between the EU-28 countries vary and the estimated long-run elasticities are higher than their short-run counterparts, which is in line with expectations based on the existing literature. The short-run and long-run income elasticities of gasoline and diesel demand are found to be more elastic than their price equivalents implying that if a charge on fuel is designed to decrease emissions by increasing the price, the charge needs to rise at a higher rate than income. An analysis of the EU's 2030 emission and fuel consumption reduction targets using the estimated long-run elasticities shows that, with the current tax scheme, it cannot be guaranteed that emission targets will be achieved and thus a more stringent fuel tax policy is essential.

Suggested Citation

  • Aklilu, Abenezer Zeleke, 2020. "Gasoline and diesel demand in the EU: Implications for the 2030 emission goal," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:118:y:2020:i:c:s1364032119307385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032119307385
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109530?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    2. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    3. Sterner, Thomas, 2007. "Fuel taxes: An important instrument for climate policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3194-3202, June.
    4. Dahl, Carol A., 2012. "Measuring global gasoline and diesel price and income elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 2-13.
    5. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    6. Amusa, Hammed & Amusa, Kafayat & Mabugu, Ramos, 2009. "Aggregate demand for electricity in South Africa: An analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4167-4175, October.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1983. "Gasoline demand in the OECD : An application of pooling and testing procedures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 117-137, July.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Kayser, Hilke A., 2000. "Gasoline demand and car choice: estimating gasoline demand using household information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 331-348, June.
    11. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    12. Pock, Markus, 2010. "Gasoline demand in Europe: New insights," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 54-62, January.
    13. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johan Gars & Daniel Spiro & Henrik Wachtmeister, 2022. "The effect of European fuel-tax cuts on the oil income of Russia," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 989-997, October.
    2. Rasti-Barzoki, Morteza & Moon, Ilkyeong, 2021. "A game theoretic approach for analyzing electric and gasoline-based vehicles’ competition in a supply chain under government sustainable strategies: A case study of South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Stefano d’Ambrosio & Alessandro Mancarella & Andrea Manelli, 2022. "Utilization of Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO) in a Euro 6 Dual-Loop EGR Diesel Engine: Behavior as a Drop-In Fuel and Potentialities along Calibration Parameter Sweeps," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Gren, Ing-Marie & Tirkaso, Wondmagegn, 2021. "Costs and equity of uncertain greenhouse gas reductions – fuel, food and negative emissions in Sweden," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    5. Mishra, Brajesh & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2023. "Policies to reduce India's crude oil import dependence amidst clean energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. Johan Gars & Daniel Spiro & Henrik Wachtmeister, 2022. "What is the effect of EU's fuel-tax cuts on Russia's oil income?," Papers 2204.03318, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    7. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bakhat, Mohcine & Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "Elasticities of transport fuels at times of economic crisis: An empirical analysis for Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 66-80.
    2. Shaw, Charles, 2020. "Econometric Analysis of Demand for Petrol in India, 1966-2019," MPRA Paper 104797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zimmer, Anne & Koch, Nicolas, 2017. "Fuel consumption dynamics in Europe: Tax reform implications for air pollution and carbon emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 22-50.
    4. Burke, Paul J. & Nishitateno, Shuhei, 2013. "Gasoline prices, gasoline consumption, and new-vehicle fuel economy: Evidence for a large sample of countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 363-370.
    5. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Shocks and Gasoline Consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2022. "Dynamics of fuel demand elasticity: Evidence from Iranian subsidy reforms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    7. Niklas Döbbeling-Hildebrandt & Klaas Miersch & Tarun M. Khanna & Marion Bachelet & Stephan B. Bruns & Max Callaghan & Ottmar Edenhofer & Christian Flachsland & Piers M. Forster & Matthias Kalkuhl & Ni, 2024. "Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Leonid Galchynskyi, 2020. "Estimation of the price elasticity of petroleum products’ consumption in Ukraine," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 315-339, June.
    9. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    10. Liddle, Brantley & Parker, Steven, 2022. "One more for the road: Reconsidering whether OECD gasoline income and price elasticities have changed over time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    11. Arzaghi, Mohammad & Squalli, Jay, 2015. "How price inelastic is demand for gasoline in fuel-subsidizing economies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-124.
    12. Melo, Patricia C. & Ramli, Ahmad Razi, 2014. "Estimating fuel demand elasticities to evaluate CO2 emissions: Panel data evidence for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 30-46.
    13. Havranek, Tomas & Kokes, Ondrej, 2015. "Income elasticity of gasoline demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 77-86.
    14. Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2014. "Shedding light on the appropriateness of the (high) gasoline tax level in Germany," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 189-210.
    15. Biru Paul & Md. Uddin & Abdullah Noman, 2011. "Remittances and output in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 58(2), pages 229-242, June.
    16. Tirkaso, Wondmagegn Tafesse & Gren, Ing-Marie, 2020. "Road fuel demand and regional effects of carbon taxes in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2012. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 201-207.
    18. Alatorre, José Eduardo & Galindo, Luis Miguel & Samaniego, Joseluis, 2015. "Meta-analysis of the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand: public policy implications for Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    19. Tilov, Ivan & Weber, Sylvain, 2023. "Heterogeneity in price elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled: Evidence from micro-level panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    20. Chen, Haotian & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2017. "A Bayesian sampling approach to measuring the price responsiveness of gasoline demand using a constrained partially linear model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 346-354.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:118:y:2020:i:c:s1364032119307385. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.