IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v163y2021icp172-187.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk assessment of offshore photovoltaic projects under probabilistic linguistic environment

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Jianwei
  • Guo, Fengjia
  • Li, Xiangzhen
  • Huang, Xin
  • Men, Huijuan

Abstract

Offshore photovoltaic (PV) power generation has received extensive attention for its advantages of saving land resources, high power generation efficiency and proximity to load centers. However, investors are bound to face a series of risks since China’s offshore PV power generation is still in its infancy. To this end, a multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) framework for the risk assessment of offshore PV projects is constructed in this paper. Firstly, 17 risk factors are identified and classified into 4 groups. Probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs) are then introduced to evaluate the criteria values to depict the uncertainty and fuzziness. Furthermore, a probabilistic linguistic ordered average Choquet integral (PLOAC) operator is proposed to aggregate criteria values and deal with the correlations between criteria. In addition, an expert weight-determining model is built based on the entropy and interaction-entropy measures of PLTSs. Finally, the risk levels of the project and each criterion are determined by similarity measure and the corresponding risk countermeasures are given. According to the case study and comparative analysis, the risk level of Zhejiang Ninghai offshore PV project is slightly high. This work provides a scientific theoretical basis for investment decision-making and risk prevention of offshore PV projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Jianwei & Guo, Fengjia & Li, Xiangzhen & Huang, Xin & Men, Huijuan, 2021. "Risk assessment of offshore photovoltaic projects under probabilistic linguistic environment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 172-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:172-187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.110
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120313550
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2020.08.110?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan P. Scott & Alison C. Cullen & Cate Fox‐Lent & Igor Linkov, 2016. "Can Carbon Nanomaterials Improve CZTS Photovoltaic Devices? Evaluation of Performance and Impacts Using Integrated Life‐Cycle Assessment and Decision Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(10), pages 1916-1935, October.
    2. Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "AHP-based risk analysis of energy performance contracting projects in Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 559-581.
    3. Zhang, Ling & Zhou, Peng & Newton, Sidney & Fang, Jian-xin & Zhou, De-qun & Zhang, Lu-ping, 2015. "Evaluating clean energy alternatives for Jiangsu, China: An improved multi-criteria decision making method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 953-964.
    4. Shorabeh, Saman Nadizadeh & Firozjaei, Mohammad Karimi & Nematollahi, Omid & Firozjaei, Hamzeh Karimi & Jelokhani-Niaraki, Mohammadreza, 2019. "A risk-based multi-criteria spatial decision analysis for solar power plant site selection in different climates: A case study in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 958-973.
    5. Protopapadaki, Christina & Saelens, Dirk, 2017. "Heat pump and PV impact on residential low-voltage distribution grids as a function of building and district properties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 268-281.
    6. Hoffmann, Alessandra Schwertner & Carvalho, Gabriel Henriques de & Cardoso Jr., Ricardo Abranches Felix, 2019. "Environmental licensing challenges for the implementation of photovoltaic solar energy projects in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1143-1154.
    7. Kamenopoulos, Sotiris N. & Tsoutsos, Theocharis, 2015. "Assessment of the safe operation and maintenance of photovoltaic systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1633-1638.
    8. Mauleón, Ignacio & Hamoudi, Hamid, 2017. "Photovoltaic and wind cost decrease estimation: Implications for investment analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1054-1065.
    9. Kayser, Dirk, 2016. "Solar photovoltaic projects in China: High investment risks and the need for institutional response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 144-152.
    10. Luo, Guo-liang & Long, Cheng-feng & Wei, Xiao & Tang, Wen-jun, 2016. "Financing risks involved in distributed PV power generation in China and analysis of countermeasures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 93-101.
    11. Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Solar driven net zero emission electricity supply with negligible carbon cost: Israel as a case study for Sun Belt countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 87-104.
    12. Chang, Rui & Luo, Yong & Zhu, Rong, 2020. "Simulated local climatic impacts of large-scale photovoltaics over the barren area of Qinghai, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 478-489.
    13. Chiabrando, Roberto & Fabrizio, Enrico & Garnero, Gabriele, 2009. "The territorial and landscape impacts of photovoltaic systems: Definition of impacts and assessment of the glare risk," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2441-2451, December.
    14. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    15. Wu, Yunna & Jia, Weibing & Li, Lingwenying & Song, Zixin & Xu, Chuanbo & Liu, Fangtong, 2019. "Risk assessment of electric vehicle supply chain based on fuzzy synthetic evaluation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 397-411.
    16. Balocco, C. & Grazzini, G., 2006. "Sustainability and information in urban system analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2905-2914, November.
    17. Zhang, M.M. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Chen, H.T., 2017. "Optimal design of subsidy to stimulate renewable energy investments: The case of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 873-883.
    18. Zhao, Haoran & Guo, Sen & Zhao, Huiru, 2019. "Comprehensive assessment for battery energy storage systems based on fuzzy-MCDM considering risk preferences," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 450-461.
    19. Tomosk, Steve & Haysom, Joan E. & Wright, David, 2017. "Quantifying economic risk in photovoltaic power projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 422-433.
    20. Yang, Fei-fei & Zhao, Xin-gang, 2018. "Policies and economic efficiency of China's distributed photovoltaic and energy storage industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 221-230.
    21. Prusty, B. Rajanarayan & Jena, Debashisha, 2018. "An over-limit risk assessment of PV integrated power system using probabilistic load flow based on multi-time instant uncertainty modeling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 367-383.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Du, Yan-dong & Zhou, Jia-le & Zhou, Xin-yue & Wu, Yang-wen & Lu, Qiang, 2024. "Investment risk assessment of anaerobic fermentation based hydrogen production project based on regret linguistic Z-number averaging Choquet integral operator," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Qinghua Mao & Mengxin Guo & Jian Lv & Jinjin Chen & Pengzhen Xie & Meng Li, 2022. "A Risk Assessment Framework of Hybrid Offshore Wind–Solar PV Power Plants under a Probabilistic Linguistic Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-29, April.
    3. Heidari, Mohammad Reza & Heravi, Gholamreza, 2024. "Development of flexible supportive policy with real options for renewable energy projects: Case of photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    4. Song, Chenchen & Guo, Zhiling & Liu, Zhengguang & Hongyun, Zhang & Liu, Ran & Zhang, Haoran, 2024. "Application of photovoltaics on different types of land in China: Opportunities, status and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Li, Ming & Luo, Haojie & Zhou, Shijie & Senthil Kumar, Gokula Manikandan & Guo, Xinman & Law, Tin Chung & Cao, Sunliang, 2022. "State-of-the-art review of the flexibility and feasibility of emerging offshore and coastal ocean energy technologies in East and Southeast Asia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Du, Yan-dong & Zhou, Jia-le & Zhou, Xin-yue & Wu, Yang-wen & Lu, Qiang, 2024. "Investment risk assessment of anaerobic fermentation based hydrogen production project based on regret linguistic Z-number averaging Choquet integral operator," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Àlex Alonso-Travesset & Diederik Coppitters & Helena Martín & Jordi de la Hoz, 2023. "Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty in Renewable Energy System Design: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-30, January.
    3. Minaei, Foad & Minaei, Masoud & Kougias, Ioannis & Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein & Hosseini, Seyed Ali, 2021. "Rural electrification in protected areas: A spatial assessment of solar photovoltaic suitability using the fuzzy best worst method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 334-345.
    4. Yanay Farja & Mariusz Maciejczak, 2021. "Economic Implications of Agricultural Land Conversion to Solar Power Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Zhang, Lei & Qin, Quande & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2019. "China's distributed energy policies: Evolution, instruments and recommendation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 55-64.
    6. Li, Longxi & Cao, Xilin, 2022. "Comprehensive effectiveness assessment of energy storage incentive mechanisms for PV-ESS projects based on compound real options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    7. Qinghua Mao & Mengxin Guo & Jian Lv & Jinjin Chen & Pengzhen Xie & Meng Li, 2022. "A Risk Assessment Framework of Hybrid Offshore Wind–Solar PV Power Plants under a Probabilistic Linguistic Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-29, April.
    8. Victoria Kihlström & Jörgen Elbe, 2021. "Constructing Markets for Solar Energy—A Review of Literature about Market Barriers and Government Responses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Ralph W. Bailey & Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2005. "Ambiguity and Public Good Provision in Large Societies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(5), pages 741-759, December.
    11. Jürgen Eichberger & Simon Grant & David Kelsey, 2012. "When is ambiguity–attitude constant?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 239-263, December.
    12. Shi, Yun & Cui, Xiangyu & Zhou, Xunyu, 2020. "Beta and Coskewness Pricing: Perspective from Probability Weighting," SocArXiv 5rqhv, Center for Open Science.
    13. Oyewo, Ayobami Solomon & Solomon, A.A. & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Aghahosseini, Arman & Mensah, Theophilus Nii Odai & Ram, Manish & Breyer, Christian, 2021. "Just transition towards defossilised energy systems for developing economies: A case study of Ethiopia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 346-365.
    14. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson & David Schmeidler, 2019. "What are axiomatizations good for?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 86(3), pages 339-359, May.
    15. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin & Sandra Paterlini, 2018. "Asset allocation strategies based on penalized quantile regression," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, January.
    16. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2012. "Probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 271-283.
    17. Damianakis, Nikolaos & Mouli, Gautham Ram Chandra & Bauer, Pavol & Yu, Yunhe, 2023. "Assessing the grid impact of Electric Vehicles, Heat Pumps & PV generation in Dutch LV distribution grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    18. Evan Piermont, 2021. "Hypothetical Expected Utility," Papers 2106.15979, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    19. ,, 2014. "Second order beliefs models of choice under imprecise risk: non-additive second order beliefs vs. nonlinear second order utility," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(3), September.
    20. Diecidue, Enrico & Wakker, Peter P, 2001. "On the Intuition of Rank-Dependent Utility," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 281-298, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:172-187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.